نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، تهران، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف:
توجه به پیامدهای اقتصادی تخریب محیط زیست و تحلیل اثر­های محیط زیستی رشد و توسعه اقتصادی در قالب منحنی کوزنتس محیط زیستی پیش از اجماع جهانی پیرامون ضرورت کاهش انتشار کربن، شکل گرفت. فرضیه پناهگاه آلودگی نیز در پی انتقال سرمایه از کشورهای توسعه یافته به در حال توسعه و به دنبال تحلیل اثر­های محیط زیستی آن پدید آمد. به ­تازگی بررسی اثر گذاری فساد اقتصادی بر انتشار کربن بعنوان هدف اصلی برخی مطالعات تجربی پیرامون اقتصاد محیط زیست مطرح و حتی سعی شده مفاهیم منحنی کوزنتس محیط زیستی و پناهگاه آلودگی با کمک مبانی نظری موجود پیرامون تأثیر فساد بر کیفیت محیط زیست تشریح شود. در این چهارچوب این گونه استدلال می ­شود که بر مبنای فرضیه PHH، فساد با تضعیف نهادهای قانونی و نظارتی، تخریب محیط زیست را در اثر کاهش هزینه­ های انتشار کربن و در نتیجه ورود کارخانه ­های آلاینده از کشورهای توسعه یافته به کشورهای در حال توسعه و کمتر توسعه یافته به دنبال دارد. از سوی دیگر بر مبنای فرضیه EKC، فساد با ایجاد اخلال در نظام توزیع درآمد و تضعیف فعالیت­های مولد اقتصادی،  بیشینه تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه­ ای که پس از آن روند نزولی انتشار آغاز می­ شود را به تأخیر می­ اندازد و در نتیجه بر تخریب محیط ­زیست افزوده می­ شود. در این مورد بحثی نظری پیرامون تأثیرگذاری قابل توجه کاهش سطح فساد بر بهبود کیفیت محیط زیست در کشورهای در حال توسعه نسبت به کشورهای توسعه یافته صورت گرفته و ادعا شده که در کشورهای در حال توسعه و کمتر توسعه یافته در مقایسه با کشورهای توسعه یافته، کاهش سطح فساد، آثار معنادارتری بر کاهش انتشار آلاینده کربن دارد. هدف این مطالعه بررسی تجربی این ادعا است.
مواد و روش­ ها:
در این مطالعه با استفاده از داده­ های پانل شامل 61 کشور در بازه زمانی سال ­های 2003 تا 2016 و الگوی پانل آستانه ­ای در نرم افزار استتا به بررسی تجربی ادعای فوق پرداخته ­ایم. با بکارگیری شاخص توسعه انسانی به عنوان متغیر آستانه، کشورها را به دو گروه توسعه یافته و در حال توسعه تقسیم کرده و ضریب مربوط به تأثیر گذاری فساد بر انتشار کربن را تحلیل کردیم. در این چهارچوب ابتدا با استفاده از آزمون ­های مربوطه تعداد آستانه ­ها شناسایی و سپس بر مبنای آن الگویی شامل متغیرهای انتشار کربن، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، شاخص توسعه انسانی، رشد جمعیت شهرنشین، مصرف سرانه انرژی اولیه، تجارت کالایی و شاخص فساد، برآورد شد.
نتایج و بحث:
رگرسیون آستانه برآورد شده به طور کلی معنادار بود. ضریب مربوط به کشورهای در حال توسعه منفی، معنادار و بزرگتر از کشورهای توسعه یافته برآورد شد. در مقابل ضریب مربوطه برای کشورهای توسعه یافته مثبت، کوچکتر و بی­ معنا برآورد شد. این نتایج ادعای بالا را تأیید می­ کند. در کشورهای در حال توسعه به ازای هر واحد افزایش در شاخص فساد (که به معنای کاهش سطح فساد است)، انتشار کربن به میزان 0.08 واحد کاهش می ­یابد، در حالی که تأثیر پذیری انتشار کربن از سطح فساد در کشورهای توسعه یافته متوقف شده و دیگر کاهش فساد در این کشورها تأثیر معناداری بر کاهش سطح انتشار کربن به همراه ندارد.
نتیجه ­گیری:
کاهش سطح فساد در کشورهای در حال توسعه و کمتر توسعه یافته نسبت به کشورهای توسعه یافته، اثر کاهنده قوی ­تری بر انتشار کربن دارد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Does the effect of corruption on carbon emissions vary in different countries?

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Akhbari
  • Mehdi Nejati

Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction:
Attention to the economic consequences of environmental degradation and analyzing the environmental impacts of economic developments, in form of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), has been established before the global consensus on the necessity of reducing carbon emissions. The pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) also follows the capital transfer from developed economies to developing ones and the analyzing of consequences of its environmental impacts. Recently, the impact of corruption on carbon emissions has been raised as the main objective of empirical studies on the environmental economy. Several attempts have been made, in which assumptions of the EKC and PHH are explained with the help of theoretical foundations on the impact of corruption on environmental quality. In this context, it is argued that based on the PHH hypothesis, corruption, with the weakening of regulatory and monitoring institutions, led to environmental degradation by reducing carbon emission costs and, consequently, the entry of dirty industries from developed countries to developing countries and less developed to follow. On the other hand, corruption, according to EKC, by distorting the income distribution system and undermining productive economic activities, delays the maximum per capita of the gross domestic product, after which the downward trend of carbon emission is begun, resulting in the increased environmental degradation. Recently, a theoretical discussion has taken place about the significant impact of reducing the level of corruption on improving the environmental quality in developing countries rather than in developed ones. It is claimed that in developing and less developed economies, the decline in the level of corruption has more significant effects on reducing carbon emissions. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate this claim.
Material and methods:
In this study, we have empirically investigated this claim using panel data including 61 countries during 2003-2016 and the method of threshold panel model in STATA. We analyzed the coefficient of the effect of corruption on carbon emissions via the Human Development Index as a threshold variable for dividing countries into developed and developing. In this framework, at first, using the relevant tests, the thresholds were identified and then based on that, the model including variables like carbon emission, per capita gross domestic product, human development index, urban population growth, primary energy consumption, commodity trade, and corruption index was estimated. 
Results and discussion:
The coefficient for developing countries was estimated negative, significant and larger than developed countries. On the other hand, the coefficient for the developed countries was positive, smaller and not significant. In developing countries, per every unit increase in the index of corruption (which means reducing the level of corruption), the carbon emission will be reduced by 0.08 units, while in developed countries, the effectiveness of carbon emission from corruption has been stopped. The reduction of corruption in these countries does not have a significant effect on the reduction of carbon emissions.
Conclusion:
As it was mentioned, corruption was a common issue in both developed and developing countries, but comparatively, it had a greater effect on CO2 emissions in developing countries than that in developed ones.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Corruption
  • EKC
  • PHH
  • Threshold panel regression
  • Carbon emission

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