نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده محیط زیست

2 دانشکده محیط زیست دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشگاه تبریز

4 دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

سطح زمین تاکنون در معرض تغییرات چشمگیر کاربری و پوشش زمین قرار گرفته که این در پهنهها و حوزههای نفوذ مناطق سکونتگاهی ب سیار مشـــهودتر اســـت. تغییرات کاربری زمین نقش مهمی در درک ارتباط متقابل بین فعالیتهای بشــر و محیطزیســت دارد، بنابراین بررســی این تغییرات به صورت توالی زمانی از گذ شته تا آینده (رهیافت پویا) ضروری اسـت. در این تحقیق با کاربرد فنون سـنجشازدور و سـیسـتم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، کاربریهای زمین برای ســه دوره 1987 ،2000 و 2014 به ترتیب با ا ستفاده از ت صاویر ماهوارهای لند ست TM+ ،ETM و OLI برای شـهرسـتان ملکان اسـتخراج و تغییرات کاربری زمین بین این سـه دوره پایش شـــد. در ادامه بهمنظور پیشبینی وضـــعیت کاربری زمین آینده منطقه برای افق 14 ســاله از مدل ســیای مارکوف اســتفاده شــد. نتایج تحقیق نشـاندهنده رشـد زمینهای کشـاورزی و مناطق انسـانسـاخت (مســکونی) از ســال 1989 تا 2014 اســت؛ در حالیکه در همین دوره و سعت کاربری بایر کاهش یافته ا ست. نتایج حا صل از پیشبینی کاربری زمین آینده منطقه نشـــان میدهد که در دوره زمانی 2014 تا 2028 کاربری کشـاورزی از 53/24 درصـد به 67/25 درصـد خواهد رسـید که نمایانگر روند افزای شی ا ست. طبق پیشبینی به عمل آمده میزان کاربری مناطق ان سان ساخت در منطقه در سال 2028 به 75/3 میر سد که در مقایسه با مقدار مشابه در سال 2014 افزایش خواهد یافت. نتایج تحقیق حاضر میتواند در ارتقا استراتژیهای مدیریت کاربری زمین منطقه مورد بررسی نقش مفیدی ایفا کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of Land Use Change using CA-Markov: A case study of Malekan County

نویسندگان [English]

  • Vahid Amini Parsa 1
  • Esmail Salehi 2
  • Shahab Adeli 3
  • Ali Azizi 4

1 Department of Environmental Planning, Management and Education, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran

2 Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran

3 University of Tabriz, Tabriz

4 Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran

چکیده [English]

The land surface has experienced significant land use and land cover changes especially with regard to the human built environment. Land use changes is an important component in understanding the interactions between human activities and the environment, so analyzing these changes from the past to the future on the basis of a dynamic approach is necessary. In this research, land use maps for Malekan County in East Azerbaijan (Iran) for the years 1987, 2000 and 2014 were extracted, respectively, using Landsat TM, ETM+ and OLI using RS and GIS techniques. Land use changes detected over the past 27 years were analyzed. The CAMarkov model was used to predict the land use pattern for 2024. Results show that agricultural land and human built areas increased but bare land decreased during the period 1987-2014. The simulated land use map for 2024 indicates an incremental trend in agricultural land (from 24.53% to 25.67%) and also in human built areas (from 2.69% to 3.75%) during 2014-2028. These results can play useful role to improve land use management strategies in the study area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Land use change
  • CA_Markov model
  • Malekan County
  • East Azerbaijan

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