نوع مقاله : مقاله کوتاه

نویسندگان

1 مرکز تحصیلات تکمیلی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران

2 دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه امام حسین(ع)، تهران

3 دانشکده مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران

چکیده

پدیده تغییر اقلیم در کشور اثرات محسوس و اغلب نامطلوبی را ایجاد خواهد کرد. آشکار سازی و بررسی اثرات این پدیده بر محیط‎زیست و عوامل هیدرولوژیکی از جمله جریان رودخانه‌ها، به‌عنوان عامل اساسی در تامین منابع آبی، یک ضرورت است. پژوهش حاضر در این راستا، سناریوهای بلند‌مدت جریان و تبخیر تحت تاثیر پدیده مذکور را در حوضه آبریز سد کارون 4 طی مراحلی تولید کرده است. ابتدا روابط محاسبات تبخیر و مدل‌های برآورد جریان تهیه شد. سپس بر اساس بارش و دمای ماهانه این حوضه که توسط مدل‌های گردش عمومی و تغییراقلیم AOGCM[i] تحت 11 مدل از سری AR4[ii]  بررسی و تعداد 28 سناریو برای عوامل مذکور برای 90 سال آینده ایجاد شده، جریان و آورد رودخانه محاسبه شده است.  جریان از مدل رگرسیونی تجربی چند متغیره برآورد شده که به استناد داده‌های تاریخی ایجاد و کالیبره گردید. جریان آینده برای هر یک از سناریوها بطور جداگانه شبیه‌سازی و محاسبه گردیده است. رفتار و روند تغییرات جریان، در بدبین‌ترین و خوش‌بین‌ترین سناریوها مورد تحلیل قرار گرفته و تغییرات جریان در سه دوره 30 ساله و تا انتهای قرن حاضر تحلیل شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد در انتهای دوره سوم (2100)، افزایش دما 6/22%‌ و کاهش بارش 2/17% خواهد بود که موجب تغییرات قابل توجهی در جریان رودخانه شده و مقدار آن‎ را از 4/7% (خوش‌بین‌ترین سناریو) تا 32% (بد‌بین‌ترین سناریو) و به‌ طور متوسط 6/18% کاهش خواهد داد. کاهش جریان منابع آبی تنها در تولید 1000 مگاواتی نیروگاه کارون 4 کاهش 20 درصدی ایجاد خواهد کرد و حداکثر و حداقل متوسط تولید نیروگاه به 971 و 395 مگاوات می‌رسد.[i]Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models[ii]Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Long Term River Discharge Scenarios Estimation Under Climate Change Impacts. (Case Study: Karun4 Catchment Area)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Asadolah Akbarian Aghdam 1
  • Alimohammad Ahmadvand 2
  • Saeed Alimohammadi 3

1 Tehran Graduate Center, University of Payam Noor

2 University of Imam Hossein

3 Shahid Beheshti University

چکیده [English]

Climate change is likely to create considerable and often unfavorable impacts in Iran. Investigating and analyzing of the impacts of this phenomenon on the environment and on hydrological factors, including river flows as the basic factor in the provision of water resources, is a serious need. This study is in line with this objective and has conducted the production of long term scenarios of discharge and evaporation under the influence of climate change in Karun4 basin. In this study, long-term scenarios for predicting the future discharge under the effect of climate change have been established for the next 90 years. At first, 28 scenarios for monthly temperature and rainfall were generated using 11 AOGCM models under AR4 for different years were created. Discharges were estimated by an empirical multi-variable regression model which was obtained, calibrated and finalized by using historical data. Future discharge was then obtained and its behaviour and trend were analyzed for average, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The results show changes of rainfall (about 17% decrease) and temperature (22.6% increase) over the next 90 years will cause a significant change in river discharge from between 32% (the pessimistic condition) to 7.4% (the optimistic condition) and, under average conditions, a reduction of 18.6%. Bases on these results, climate change along with the increase of evapotranspiration and decrease in discharge will cause significant impacts on water resources. As a result it is shown that a reduction of about 20% will probably occur in hydropower plant production.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hydropower Plant
  • Empirical Regression Model
  • Discharge Scenario
  • downscaling
  • Evapotranspiration

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