نوع مقاله : مقاله کوتاه

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران

2 دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهیدبهشتی، تهران

3 پژوهشکده هواشناسی، سازمان هواشناسی، تهران

چکیده

تغییرات آب و هوایی با تغییر الگوهای اقلیمی و به هم ریختن نظم اکوسیستم‎ها ، تاثیرات جدی بر محیط‎زیست دارد. تغییر در الگوهای آب و هوایی می‎تواند به وقوع سیل­های شدید، گرما و سرماهای شدید، تکرار بیشتر خشکسالی­ها  و گرم شدن جهانی هوا منجر شود. حتی هر یک از این پدیده‎ها می‎تواند ذخایر غذایی یک منطقه را نیز در معرض خطر قرار دهد. شمال شرق کشور به سبب وسعت زیاد از شرایط طبیعی بسیار متنوعی برخوردار بوده و هر یک از نواحی آن دارای ویژگی‎های طبیعی خاصی می‎باشد. گستردگی منطقه و عواملی مانند وجود رشته کوه‎های مرتفع و مناطق کویری، دوری از پهنه‎های آبی و وزش بادهای مختلف موجب گوناگونی آب و هوا در هر یک از مناطق آن گردیده است. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از آزمون من -کندال و مدل AHP در شمال شرق کشور، عناصر اقلیمی با روند صعودی (82.25 درصد) خیلی بیشتر از عناصر اقلیمی با روند نزولی (35.5 درصد) در تغییرات اقلیمی شمال شرق ایران سهیم بوده‎اند. مناطقی که بیشترین تغییرات آب و هوایی را از لحاظ عناصر هواشناسی با روند نزولی (تعداد روزهای یخبندان، متوسط رطوبت، تعداد روزهای برفی، بارش 24 ساعته، بارش سالانه) تجربه می‎کنند. در قسمت‎های جنوب و جنوب‎شرقی منطقه مشاهده می‎شوند. عناصر اقلیمی با روند افزایشی (متوسط دما، دمای حداقل، دمای حداکثر، ساعات آفتابی)، بیشترین وسعت منطقه را پوشش می‎دهند. در این میان فقط ایستگاه‎های قوچان، سبزوار، دچار کم‎ترین تغییرات آب و هوایی می‎باشند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Weather Elements Monitoring in North-East Stations of Iran as a Profile of Climate Change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmoud Ahmadi 1
  • Hasan lashkari 1
  • Ghasem Keikhosravi 2
  • Majed Azadi 3

1 Department of Climatology, Faculty of Earth Science, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran

2 Faculty of Earth Science, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran

3 Department of havashenasi, Orgnization havashenasi, Tehran

چکیده [English]

Climate change with changing climate patterns and confounds Ecosystems discipline, imports Serious consequences on the environment. Changes in weather patterns Could lead to severe flooding, extreme heat or cold, more frequent droughts. Each of these phenomena could Put at risk the regional food reserves. North east of Iran due to the large area has very varied natural conditions and each of the areas included specific natural features. The extent of the area and factors such as mountains rising, desert areas , stay away from the water zones and different winds lead to variety of weather in each of those area. Based on the results if the man-kendall test and AHP model in north east of Iran, climatic elements with ascending trend (82.25%) much more than climatic elements with descending trend (35.5%) affect on climate change in north east of Iran. Areas that experience most climate changes due to descending elements (number of frost days , average moisture, the number of days with snowfall,24-hour rainfall, annual precipitation) is seen in the South and South east of region. Climatic elements with ascending trend (The average temperature, the minimum temperature, the maximum temperature, hours of sunshine) cover most extent of this region. Only Ghochan and Sabzevar stations demonstrate the least climate changes.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • North-East of Iran
  • ManKendall Test
  • Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Model

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