نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
2 گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction: In many regions, including the Sistan region, the dominant occupation of local communities has been agriculture, animal husbandry, fishing, etc., but persistent droughts have led to a stagnation of economic activities.
Material and methods: Given that in the Sistan region, the failure to respect the water rights of the Hamun International Wetland and the intensification of drought have led to the stagnation of economic activities, local communities are forced to leave the region to support their families, so sustainable livelihoods in this region are essential. The purpose of this research is to investigate what factors lead to migration from the perspective of local communities? The research method is descriptive-inferential. For this purpose, a questionnaire of 250 people was used according to the perspective of local communities. Factors affecting the desire to migrate at four levels (diversity of economic activities, economic satisfaction, age of the head of household and education, drought situation, household income and number of family members) were examined to determine whether these factors are important in the desire to migrate. Multivariate regression was used to examine the importance of these factors on the desire to migrate of local communities. In order to determine what factors cause the migration of local communities, planners and officials can prioritize the most important factors affecting migration to develop quick-return economic activities in order to prevent migration, according to the perspective of local communities.
Results and discussion: In this study, the effect of economic activity diversity, economic satisfaction, age of household head, education, drought, household income, and number of household members on the migration tendency of local communities in Sistan was investigated from the perspective of local communities. The reliability of the questionnaires is more than 0.7 and the acceptability of the data was confirmed. Then, the significance of the variables of economic activity diversity, economic satisfaction, age of household head, education, drought, household income, and number of household members as independent variables on the migration tendency as dependent variable in regression modeling was examined. The results showed that all variables are significant, the significance of the F statistic was 122.92, which confirms the significance of the entire model. Also, the Durbin-Watson statistic showed the absence of autocorrelation in the model, the R2 value showed that 78 percent of the changes in migration tendency are explained by the independent variables. Examining the coefficients of the variables showed that increasing the diversity of economic activities, economic satisfaction, and household income leads to a decrease in migration, and in the current situation, the age of the household head, education, drought, and the number of household members lead to an increase in migration.
Conclusion: In this study, the reliability of the questionnaires used was confirmed with Cronbach''''s alpha, and the relationship between the independent variables (diversity of economic activities, economic satisfaction, age of the household head, education, drought status, household income, and number of family members) on the dependent variable (propensity to migrate) was examined in regression modeling. The results showed the significance of the model and the significance of the independent variables on the dependent variable. According to the results, with the development of economic activities, increasing income, which increases economic satisfaction, the tendency of local communities to migration decreases. However, if the situation remains the same, due to the decrease in household income and the increase in poverty and unemployment, household heads and educated youth will be forced to migrate for a living. Therefore, the attention and support of relevant managers and officials is necessary to develop quick-return economic activities to reduce migration in the Sistan region.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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