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ارزیابی ریسک تهاجمی گونه‌های ماهیان غیربومی با استفاده از مدل AS-ISK در رودخانه‌های حوضه جنوبی دریای خزر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه شیلات، دانشکده علوم دامی و شیلات، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایرا ن

2 بخش زیستگاهها و مناطق حفاظت شده، اداره کل حفاظت مح یط ز یس ت مازندران، سا ری، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: گونه‌های غیربومی یکی از تهدیدهای مهم برای تنوع زیستی محسوب می‌شوند. برخی از گونه‌های ماهیان غیربومی اثرات سوء زیست محیطی داشته و به­ عنوان ماهیان مهاجم شناخته می‌شوند. رودخانه‏ های حوضه جنوبی دریای خزر که مأمن و زیستگاه طیف وسیعی از ماهیان بومی و تجاری هستند. مدل‌های ارزیابی ریسک تهاجمی گونه‌های ماهیان غیربومی برای شناسایی گونه‌های غیربومی با توان بالای تهاجمی و به­ عنوان ابزاری برای کمک تصمیم‌گیران و سیاست‌گذاران استفاده می‌شود. هدف این تحقیق واسنجی و بررسی کارآمدی مدل  (AS-ISK) Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kitدر ارزیابی خطر ریسک گونه‌های ماهیان غیربومی رودخانه‌های حوضه جنوبی دریای خزر است.
مواد و روش‌ها: از ابزار ارزیابی ریسک تهاجمی آبزیان (AS-ISK) برای ارزیابی گونه‌های ماهیان غیربومی که ممکن است توان بالای مهاجم شدن در رودخانه‌های حوضه جنوبی دریای خزر را داشته باشند استفاده شده است. 15 گونه از ماهیان غیربومی موجود در منطقه ارزیابی ریسک ارزیابی شدند که 14 گونه آن موجود و یک گونه آن به ­عنوان گونه افق در منطقه ارزیابی ریسک بودند . با استفاده از روش‌های آماری اعداد ریسک حاصل از ارزیابی ریسک توسط هر ارزیاب با هم مقایسه شدند. حد آستانه مدل با روش آنالیز منحنی راک تعیین شد. همچنین برای تطابق اقلیمی منطقه ارزیابی ریسک و گستره بومی ماهیان غیربومی از سیستم طبقه بندی اقلیمی Köppen-Geiger استفاده شده است.
نتایج و بحث: ارزیابی ریسک گونه‌های ماهیان غیربومی در منطقه ارزیابی منجر به شناسایی 73% گونه‌ها به­ عنوان ماهیان با توان بالای تهاجمی شد. بیشترین عدد ریسک در مدل AS-ISK برای گونه‌هایCarassius auratus  و Carassius gibelio و کمترین برای Anguilla anguilla به­ دست آمد. تفاوت معنی‌داری از نظر آماری بین متوسط عدد ریسک دو ارزیاب وجود نداشت. حدآستانه برای
 AS-ISK و ارزیابی ریسک اصلی مدل (BRA) به ترتیب 5/9 و 5/11 به ­دست آمد. سطح زیر نمودار منحنی راک برای مدل AS-ISK %100 بود که از نظر آماری، بیانگر کارآمدی مدل در ارزیابی ریسک گونه‌های ماهیان غیربومی در منطقه ارزیابی ریسک بوده است. 11 گونه از 15گونه ماهی غیربومی به­ عنوان گونه‌های با توان بالای تهاجمی (مهاجم) و بقیه به ­عنوان گونه غیرمهاجم در رودخانه‌های حوضه جنوبی دریای خزر شناسایی شدند. فاکتور اطمینان برای ارزیابی‌های گونه‌ها از 64% تا 73% متفاوت بود. تمام گونه‌های اولویت‌بندی مدیریتی شدند و در سه فهرست سیاه، خاکستری و سفید قرار گرفتند.
نتیجه‌گیری: مدل  AS-ISKبرای شناسایی گونه‌های ماهیان غیربومی که ممکن است در رودخانه‌های حوضه جنوبی دریای خزر مهاجم شده یا شوند کارآمد بوده و می‌توان از این مدل برای اولویت‌بندی مدیریتی آن­ها بر اساس میزان ریسک و به ­عنوان ابزاری علمی در حمایت از مدیران حفاظت، تصمیم‌گیران و سیاست‌گذاران طرح‌های توسعه آبزی‌پروری در منطقه ارزیابی ریسک استفاده نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Invasiveness risk assessment of non-native fishes using the AS-ISK model in the rivers of the southern basin of the Caspian Sea

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Rahmani 1
  • Seyed Daryoush Moghaddas 2

1 Department of Fisheries, Faculty of Animal Science and Fisheries, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran

2 Part of Habitats and Protected Areas, Mazandaran Department of Environment, Sari, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction: Non-native species are one of the important threats to biodiversity. Some non-native fish species pose environmental impacts and are known as invasive species. Rivers of the southern Caspian Sea are home to a vast variety of native or commercial fish species. Non-native species invasiveness risk assessment tools are used to identify the species with high invasive potential risks and are used as a decision–making tool. The main aim of this study is to calibrate and validate the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK) for non-native fish species of rivers in the southern Caspian Sea basin.
Material and methods: AS-ISK was used to assess non-native (NN) fish that may pose a high potential risk of becoming invasive in rivers of the South Caspian Sea. Fifteen NN fish species were assessed, 14 of which are extant and 1 is horizon species in the risk assessment (RA) area. The statistical methods were used to compare the scores obtained by each assessor. The threshold score was calculated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Also, the Köppen-Geiger climate system was used to match the climate between the native range of NN fish species and the risk assessment area.
Results and discussion: Risk assessment of NN fish species led to the identification of 73 % of the species as potential invasive species in the RA area. Carassius gibelio and Carassius auratus achieved the highest risk score and Anguilla anguilla obtained the lowest risk score among all NN fish species. There was not a statistically significant difference between assessor-specific mean risk scores. Threshold scores were 9.5 and 11.5 for AS-ISK and Basic Risk Assessment (BRA), respectively. The area under curve was 100%, which shows an excellent output for the efficiency of the AS-ISK in the RA area. Eleven out of the 15 NN fish species were identified as potential invasive species and the rest as non-invasive NN species in the RA area. Confidence factors were different from 73% to 64%. All NN fish species were categorized in three lists i.e., black, grey and white in regard to their risk ranks in order to manage prioritization.
Conclusion: The AS-ISK efficiently identified NN fish species that pose a high risk of being/becoming invasive in rivers in the south Caspian Sea to prioritize them based on their risk rank and to support conservation managers, decision-makers and policymakers in the aquaculture development plans.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • risk screening
  • AS-ISK
  • invasive species
  • Caspian Sea
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فصلنامه علوم محیطی
دوره 21، شماره 1
فروردین 1402
صفحه 31-46
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