بررسی اگرواکولوژیک روند تاریخی تغییرات تولید و سطح زیر کشت گندم و تغییرات جمعیتی در ایران در دوره 1399-1340

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه کشاورزی اکولوژیک، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 گروه اقتصاد، آموزش و سیاست محیط زیست، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی تهران، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: گندم یکی از مهم ترین محصولات مورد استفاده در کشور است و اساس امنیت غذایی ایرانیان را تشکیل می دهد. کشت گندم در ایران قدمتی طولانی و بیش از 8000 سال دارد. از سوی دیگر، با رشد جمعیت کشورها، موضوع امنیت غذایی هر روز اهمیت بیشتری پیدا کرده تا جایی که به یکی از مهم ترین مسائل کشور تبدیل شده و تلاش می شود تا در تولید این محصول استراتژیک به خودکفایی دست یافت. همچنین سطح زیر کشت همواره یکی از عوامل اصلی محدودکننده تولید در دنیا بوده است و امروزه در تمامی کشورها مسئولان و محققین در تلاش هستند تا بدون تکیه بر افزایش سطح زیر کشت به تولید بیشتر دست بیابند. تاریخ کشاورزی صنعتی و پیامدهای کشاورزی سبز در قالب کشاورزی رایج نشان می دهد که راه تامین محصولات زراعی از این طریق نیست، به ناچار اهمیت مطالعه تاریخ کشاورزی کشور هر روز اهمیت بیشتری می یابد تا با تحلیل رویدادها دلیل موفقیت یا شکست برنامه ها را در طول زمان مورد بررسی قرار گرفته، از اشتباهات آن اجتناب کرده و نقاط قوت آن را مکرر شود.
مواد و روش ها: از این رو مطالعه ای در قالب سری های زمانی و بررسی روندهای کمی جهت تحلیل و بررسی تغییرات سطح زیر کشت، تولید گندم و تغییرات جمعیتی در یک دوره 60 ساله صورت گرفته است. به منظور انجام این کار، از نرم افزار Minitab® 17.1.0 استفاده شده است.
نتایج و بحث: نتایج تحقیق نشان دهنده رشد خطی جمعیت از سال 1340 تا 1399 (1961 تا 2020) است. در همین مدت، کل تولید گندم کشور از 5/3 میلیون تن در هکتار به 7/11 میلیون تن در هکتار افزایش یافته است که رشد 234 درصدی را در این بخش نشان می دهد. سطح زیر کشت گندم در این سال ها نسبت به میزان تولید و رشد جمعیت تغییرات کمتری داشته و از 5/4 میلیون هکتار در سال 1340 (1961) به 4/6 میلیون هکتار در سال 1399 (2020) رسیده است.
نتیجه گیری: به نظر می‌رسد وقایع سال‌های 1340 تا 1350 در ساختار اجتماعی و صنعتی شدن کشور، تحولات بین دو انقلاب سال‌های 1350 تا 1360، وقوع جنگ تحمیلی در سال‌های 1360 تا 1370 همگی از اهمیت ویژه‌ای در تغییر کشاورزی ایران برخوردار باشند. این پدیده متابولیسم اجتماعی نامیده می شود که منعکس کننده تأثیراتی است که محیط طبیعی (اکوسیستم زراعی) از محیط اجتماعی خود دریافت کرده و در مقابل تأثیراتی که تغییر در ساختار و عملکرد اکوسیستم های کشاورزی بر دسترسی به غذا در جامعه بر جای می گذارد، را در معرض نمایش قرار می دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Agroecological study of the historical trend of production changes and area under wheat cultivation and population changes in Iran in the period 1340-1399

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahla Lajmorak Rameh chari 1
  • Abdol Majid Mahdavi Damghani 1
  • Hooman Liaghati 2
1 Department of Agroecology, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Agroecology, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Wheat is one of the most important crops used in the country and forms the basis of food security of Iranians. Wheat cultivation in Iran has a long history over 8,000 years. On the other hand, with the growth of the population of countries, the issue of food security has become more important every day to the extent that it has become one of the most important issues of the country and efforts are being made to achieve self-sufficiency in the production of this strategic crop. The area under cultivation has always been one of the most important factors limiting production in the world, and today in all countries, officials and researchers have paid attention to this issue in order to increase production without relying on increasing the area under cultivation. The history of compression of cultivation and the consequences of green agriculture in the form of conventional agriculture show that the way to supply crop production is not through this, inevitably the importance of studying the agricultural history of each country becomes more important every day which by analyzing events find the reason for the success or failure of programs over time.
Materials and Methods
Therefore, a study has been conducted in the form of a time series analysis study and quantitative content study to analysis and examine changes in area under cultivation, wheat production and population changes in a period of 60 years. To do this, the Mini-tab software has been used.
Results and Discussion
The results of the study show the linear population growth from 1961 to 2020. During the same period, the country's total wheat production has increased from 3.5 million tons per hectare to 11.7 million tons per hectare, which shows a growth of 234 percent in this sector. The area under wheat cultivation in these years has had less changes compared to the amount of production and population growth and has increased from 4.5 million hectares in 1961 to 6.4 million hectares in 2020.
Conclusion
It seems that the events of 1961 to 1971 in the social structure and industrialization of the country, changes between the two revolutions in 1971 to 1981, the occurrence of imposed war in 1981 to 1991 are all of special importance in changing the agriculture of Iran. This phenomenon is called social metabolism, which reflects the effects that the natural environment (agroecosystem) receives from its social environment, and in contrast to the effects that changes in the structure and function of agroecosystems on the availability of food in society.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agricultural history
  • Social metabolism
  • Wheat
  • Food security
  • Self-sufficiency

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فصلنامه علوم محیطی
دوره 20، شماره 4
1401
صفحه 205-228

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