نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف:
در حال حاضر آشکارسازی و مدل­سازی تغییرات کاربری زمین ­ها با استفاده از تصویر­های ماهواره­ای ابزاری سودمند برای درک تغییرات آینده محیط­ زیستی مرتبط با فعالیت ­های انسانی بحساب می ­آیند. پایش این تغییر­ها، ما را در درک درست از روند توسعه در گذشته و الگوهای آتی یاری می­ دهد و ابزار بسیار مهمی برای تجزیه و تحلیل دلیل­ ها و پیامدهای شکل­ گیری و گسترش کاربری ­ها بمنظور درک بهتر عملکرد سیستم‌های پوشش زمین­ ها، مدیریت پوشش زمین­ ها و شناسایی پهنه­ های حساس شناخته می­ شوند. ولی بکارگیری الگوهای پیش ­بینی شده نیازمند اعتبارسنجی و اصلاح مواردی است که مدل، قادر به پیش ­بینی آن‌ها نیست. در این پژوهش با استفاده از پردازش تصویر­های ماهواره­ای و مدل زنجیره خودکار مارکوف، تغییر­های کاربری زمین­ ها برای حوضه آبخیز بیرجند در افق 1404 مدل‌سازی ، پیش ­بینی و اعتبارسنجی شده است.
مواد و روش­ ها:
درتحقیق حاضر با استفاده از تصویر­های لندست 7 ، سال 2000 و 2004 و لندست 8، سال 2014 به آشکارسازی و مدل‌سازی تغییرات کاربری زمین­ ها پرداخته شده‌ است. سپس به­ کمک مدل زنجیره خودکار مارکوف، تغییر­های کاربری زمین­ ها در سال 2014 پیش ­بینی و مدل­سازی شده است. به­ منظور اعتبارسنجی روش مدل­سازی، میزان توافق و توافق نداشتن نقشه پیش ­بینی و نقشه طبقه­ بندی شده براساس ضرایب مختلف کاپا (کاپای استاندارد، کاپای مکانی در سطح سلول و کلاس) برآورد شده است. با اعتبارسنجی صورت گرفته تغییر­ها در سال 2024 معادل با افق موردنظر با اعتبار نسبی بالایی، پیش­بینی شد. در نهایت به­ کمک شناسایی پیشران­ه ای اصلی توسعه، چهار سناریوی توسعه تدوین شد و از بین آن‌ها سناریوی محتمل مبتنی بر رشد جمعیت و میزان مساحت مورد نیاز انتخاب شد.
نتایج و بحث:
نتایج گویای این پژوهش در فرآیندهای آشکارسازی، اعتبارسنجی مدل، پیش­ بینی و اصلاح آن توسط سناریونویسی نشان داد که مساحت افزایش یافته در کاربری کشاورزی 0.525 کیلومتر مربع و کاربری شهری 18.9 کیلومتر مربع خواهد بود و با صحت بالای 98 درصد شبیه ­سازی تغییرات کاربری آینده انجام شده است. از سویی دیگر با توجه به برآیند پیشران­ ها و مصاحبه با خبرگان متخصص، احتمال رخ دادن سناریوی شماره 3 (وقوع 70% تغییرات ادامه وضع موجود) بیشتر خواهد بود. همچنین از مقایسه ­ی دو نقشه در واحدهای مختلف روندی حاصل شد، که نشان­دهنده­ ی آن بود که با افزایش واحدهای مقایسه و دانه ­درشت ­شدن آن، مقدار توافق نداشتن موجود به سمت توافق بیشتر پیش می­ رود. همچنین ملاحظه می ­شود، کاپای مکانی در سلول و کاپای مکانی در کلاس و کاپای عدم اطلاعات دارای اعداد یکسان و متفاوت از کاپای استاندارد هستند.
نتیجه­ گیری:
 با توجه به نتایج به­ دست آمده، بعد مکانی- فضایی برای پیشرفت شهری سمت شمال شهر و به ­درستی تشخیص داده شده است. در عین حال میزان تغییرات کاربری کشاورزی و شهری- روستایی به میزان کمی، کمتر پیش ­بینی شده که در مورد کاربری کشاورزی این میزان را می ­توان به احداث تصفیه ­خانه آب و فاضلاب شهر نسبت داد و در مورد کاربری شهری این میزان به رشد شهری متفاوت در بازه ­های مورد بررسی برمی‌گردد. همچنین با وجود بالابودن اعتبار و دقت پیش ­بینی، برخی پیشران­ های اصلی توسعه دارای قابلیت پیش­ بینی در آینده، توسط مدل را نداشته اند. بنابراین پیشنهاد می ­شود در پژوهش ­های مربوط به پیش ­بینی تغییرات، افزون بر اعتبارسنجی شیوه مدل­سازی ، تنها به نتایج نهایی بسنده نشود، بلکه با درنظر گرفتن پیشران­ های توسعه به اصلاح نتایج حاصل از مدل نیز اقدام شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Scenario-based validation and prediction of land use changes in Birjand watershed in 1404

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elham Yusefiroobiat
  • Fatemeh Jahanishakib

Department of environment, Faculty of environment, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction:
Nowadays, detection and modeling land use changes using satellite imagery is a useful tool for understanding future environmental changes associated with human activities. Monitoring these changes will help us understand the development process in the past and future patterns. Land-cover change models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of shaping and expanding land uses for a better understanding of the performance of land cover systems and management and identifying sensitive areas. But applying the predicted patterns requires validation and correction of cases that the model can’t predict. In this research, using satellite imagery processing and Cellular Automated Markov chain (CA-Markov) model, agriculture and urban land use changes of Birjand watershed were modeled and predicted in 1404.
Material and methods:
In the present study, first land use changes were revealed and modeled using  Landsat 7 in 2000, and Landsat 8 in 2014. Then, using the CA-Markov Model, land use changes in 2014 were predicted and modeled. To validate the modeling method, the consistency and inconsistency between the predicted map and the classified map were estimated on different kappa (Kstandard, Kno, Klocation, and KlocationStrata) coefficients. Validation of the changes in 2024 was predicted with high relative validity. Finally, by identifying the main drivers of developments, four scenarios of development were developed. A probable scenario based on population growth and the required area was selected among them.
Results and discussion:
The results of this research showed the detection, validation, prediction and correction of the model by scenario analysis. The increase in agricultural and urban lands will be 0.525 and 18.9 km2, respectively. Validating with an accuracy of over 98%, the simulation allowed prediction of future land use changes in 2024. From different scenarios, the probable scenario with an occurrence probability of 70% of the forecasted changes (scenario 3) resulting from the CA-Markov was selected according to the documentations and experts' opinions. Also, a comparison of two maps in different units resulted in a trend that by increasing the comparison units and coarse grain, the amount of the disagreement would go further towards the agreement. It is noted here that the Klocation in the cell, KlocationStrata, and Kno had the same numbers, and different from the Kstandard.
Conclusion:
According to the results, the spatial dimension of urban development in the north of the city was correctly identified. At the same time, the level of agricultural and urban-rural changes was less predicted. In the case of agriculture land use, this lower prediction was due to the construction of urban sewage treatment and in the case of urban land use, this difference can also be attributed to different urban growth in different periods. Also, despite the credibility and accuracy of prediction, some of the main drivers of development have no predictability by the model in the future. Therefore, it is suggested that research in predicting changes, in addition to validating the modeling approach, not only satisfy the final results, but also modify the results of the model by taking into account development drivers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cellular Automated Markov
  • Validation
  • prediction
  • Scenario
  • Birjand watershed

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