اثرات رشد بخش کشاورزی و مصرف انرژی بر انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای و کیفیت محیط‌زیست در کشورهای خاورمیانه

Population growth serves a dual role in economic development: it provides the necessary human resources while simultaneously escalating the demand for critical resources such as water, energy, and food. This heightened demand places increased stress on environmental systems and contributes to pollution. The surge in food demand spurs intensified agricultural activities, including crop production and livestock farming. Moreover, adopting conventional agricultural practices, characterized by an augmented reliance on chemical inputs to boost yields, is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions .Investigating the effects of agricultural development on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is critical, particularly since the agricultural sector is a significant contributor to emissions such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), especially in developing regions. Comprehensive analyses enable the identification and quantification of the contributions from various agricultural practices, including livestock production, rice cultivation, nitrogen fertilization, and land-use change, to overall GHG emissions.The investigation of determinants influencing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly within the realms of agricultural development and energy consumption, is critical for environmental sustainability. The agricultural sector is a primary contributor to methane and nitrous oxide emissions, significantly exacerbating environmental degradation. Additionally, the robust population growth observed in Middle Eastern nations, coupled with rising demands for food, energy, and industrial expansion, led to these countries contributing 8.30% to global carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, this study aims to analyze the influences of agricultural development, energy consumption patterns, trade liberalization, and population growth on greenhouse gas emissions, utilizing data from a panel of Middle Eastern countries over the period from 2000 to 2020. The findings indicate a bidirectional causal relationship between population dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, and agricultural growth. Additionally, unidirectional causal links were identified: from population to trade liberalization, from trade liberalization to methane emissions, from energy consumption to methane emissions, from population to nitrous oxide emissions, and from energy consumption to agricultural development in the region. Long-term relationship assessments revealed that development in the agricultural sector exerts the most significant impact on methane emissions while having the least effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Based on the coefficients from the three estimated models, a 1% increase in the agricultural sector's contribution to the GDP of Middle Eastern countries corresponds to an increase in emissions of 0.061% for carbon dioxide, 0.130% for methane, and 0.109% for nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the analysis highlights a positive correlation between energy consumption and emissions of both carbon dioxide and methane. According to the results of this study, it is recommended that Middle Eastern countries adopt effective strategies in the field of optimizing energy consumption and sustainable development of the agricultural sector in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Also, paying attention to modern technologies in agriculture and using sustainable agricultural methods can help reduce the production of methane and nitrous oxide. On the other hand, policies related to trade liberalization should be designed in a way that, while ensuring food security, reduces negative impacts on the environment. Finally, planning to control population growth and increasing public awareness about environmental challenges can also help improve the current situation.