اثرات رشد بخش کشاورزی و مصرف انرژی بر انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای و کیفیت محیط‌زیست در کشورهای خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه مدیریت وتوسعه روستایی دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران

چکیده

چکیده مبسوط
سابقه و هدف: بررسی عوامل تعیین کننده انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای، به ویژه در حوزه های توسعه کشاورزی و مصرف
انرژی، برای پایداری محیط زیست امری حیاتی است. بخش کشاورزی یکی از منابع اصلی انتشار متان و اکسید نیتروژن
است که به طور قابل توجهی تخریب محیط زیست را تشدید می کند. عالوه بر این، رشد سریع جمعیت مشاهده شده در
کشورهای خاورمیانه، همراه با افزایش تقاضا برای غذا، انرژی و توسعه صنعتی، منجر به سهم /30 8 درصدی این کشورها
در انتشار جهانی دی اکسیدکربن شده است.
مواد و روش ها: این مطالعه با هدف تحلیل تأثیرات رشد کشاورزی، الگوهای مصرف انرژی، آزادسازی تجاری و رشد
جمعیت بر انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای انجام شده است. برای این منظور، از داده های تابلویی ) Data Panel )کشورهای
خاورمیانه در دوره زمانی 2000 تا 2020 استفاده شده است. در این پژوهش، روابط بلندمدت بین متغیرها با استفاده
از روش حداقل مربعات معمولی کامالً اصالح شده ) FMOLS )تعیین گردید و آزمون علیت گرنجر نیز مورد بررسی قرار
گرفت.
نتایج و بحث: یافته ها نشان دهنده وجود یک رابطه علّی دوطرفه بین پویایی جمعیت و انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای،
مصرف انرژی و رشد کشاورزی است. عالوه بر این، روابط علّی یک طرفه از جمعیت به آزادسازی تجاری، از آزادسازی
تجاری به انتشار متان، از مصرف انرژی به انتشار متان، از جمعیت به انتشار اکسید نیتروژن، و از مصرف انرژی به رشد
کشاورزی در منطقه شناسایی شد. ارزیابی روابط بلندمدت نشان داد که توسعه در بخش کشاورزی بیشترین تأثیر را
ب ر انتشار متان و کمترین تأثیر را بر انتشار دی اکسیدکربن دارد. بر اساس ضرایب حاصل از سه مدل برآورد شده، افزایش
1 درصدی سهم بخش کشاورزی در تولید ناخالص داخلی کشورهای خاورمیانه، منجر به افزایش انتشار /061 0 درصدی
دی اکسیدکربن، /130 0 درصدی متان و /109 0 درصدی اکسید نیتروژن می شود. عالوه بر این، نتایج همبستگی مثبت
بین مصرف انرژی و انتشار هر دو گاز دی اکسیدکربن و متان را برجسته می کند.
نتیجه گیری: بر اساس نتایج این مطالعه، توصیه می شود کشورهای خاورمیانه استراتژی های مؤثری را برای بهینه سازی
مصرف انرژی و افزایش بهره وری آن، توسعه استفاده از انرژی های تجدیدپذیر و به کارگیری فناوری های نوین در
کشاورزی به منظور کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای اتخاذ کنند. از سوی دیگر، سیاست های مرتبط با آزادسازی تجاری
باید به گونه ای طراحی شوند که ضمن تضمین امنیت غذایی، اثرات منفی زیست محیطی را کاهش دهند. در نهایت،
برنامه ریزی برای کنترل رشد جمعیت و افزایش آگاهی عمومی درباره چالش های زیست محیطی نیز می تواند به بهبود
وضعیت موجود کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Agricultural Growth and Energy Consumption on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Quality in Middle Eastern Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ghasem Layani
  • Mehdi Karami Dehkordi
Department of Management and Rural Development Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahrekord University,, Shahrekord, ran
چکیده [English]

EXTENDED ABSTRACT
Introduction: The investigation of determinants influencing greenhouse gas emissions,
particularly within the realms of agricultural development and energy consumption, is critical
for environmental sustainability. The agricultural sector is a primary contributor to methane
and nitrous oxide emissions, significantly exacerbating environmental degradation.
Additionally, the robust population growth observed in Middle Eastern nations, coupled with
rising demands for food, energy, and industrial expansion, led to these countries contributing
8.30% to global carbon dioxide emissions.
Material and Methods: This study aims to analyze the influences of agricultural development,
energy consumption patterns, trade liberalization, and population growth on greenhouse gas
emissions, utilizing data from a panel of Middle Eastern countries over the period from 2000
to 2020. In this study, the long-run relationships between the variables were determined using
the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method, while Granger causality was
also examined.
Results and Discussion: The findings indicate a bidirectional causal relationship between
population dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, and agricultural
growth. Additionally, unidirectional causal links were identified: from population to trade
liberalization, from trade liberalization to methane emissions, from energy consumption to
methane emissions, from population to nitrous oxide emissions, and from energy consumption
to agricultural development in the region. Long-term relationship assessments revealed that
development in the agricultural sector exerts the most significant impact on methane emissions
while having the least effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Based on the coefficients from the
three estimated models, a 1% increase in the agricultural sector's contribution to the GDP of
Middle Eastern countries corresponds to an increase in emissions of 0.061% for carbon dioxide,
0.130% for methane, and 0.109% for nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the analysis highlights a
positive correlation between energy consumption and emissions of both carbon dioxide and
methane.
Conclusion: According to the results of this study, it is recommended that Middle Eastern
countries adopt effective strategies to optimize energy consumption and increase its efficiency,
develop the use of renewable energies, and adopt new technologies in agriculture in order to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, policies related to trade liberalization
should be designed in a way that, while ensuring food security, reduces negative impacts on the
environment. Finally, planning to control population growth and increasing public awareness
about environmental challenges can also help improve the current situation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • agricultural development
  • panel data
  • energy
  • trade
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