اصلاح الگوی کشت در چارچوب کشاورزی اقلیم-هوشمند و نقش آن در مدیریت پایدار منابع آب: کاربرد مدل برنامه ریزی چندهدفه و پویایی شناسی سیستم

The escalating trend in greenhouse gas emissions, coupled with recurrent and severe drought conditions, significantly impacts agricultural efficiency and food security within the nation. These environmental stressors contribute to heightened demand, increased rates of evaporation and transpiration, depletion of water resources, and an upsurge in weed proliferation, ultimately undermining the livelihoods of agricultural practitioners. To address these challenges, climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies must be prioritized by both farmers and policymakers. Effective climate change adaptation strategies present practical avenues for the agricultural sector and its stakeholders to enhance resilience. adaptation approach involves the modification of cropping patterns within the framework of climate-smart agriculture. This paradigm not only supports national food security and development objectives but also targets three critical outcomes: bolstering agricultural productivity and income, enhancing resilience and adaptation to climate change, and significantly reducing or eliminating greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture remains one of the most vulnerable sectors in the face of climate change. Adapting cultivation patterns through a climate-smart agriculture framework is critical to enhance resilience. Since agriculture accounts for a significant proportion of total water demand, implementing targeted policies in this sector is crucial for alleviating the water crisis. This study employs system dynamics to simulate the water resources system in the Kosar Dam catchment area over the period from 2021 to 2040. The complexity inherent in water resource systems necessitates robust analytical tools and system dynamics to effectively delineate the interrelationships among system components. System dynamics (SD) is a quantitative modeling method for analyzing complex systems, focusing on feedback loops and time delays. It reveals the interrelationships among system components, aiding in performance enhancement and informed decision-making in both academic and business spheres. Adopting a multi-objective optimization approach informed by climate-smart agriculture principles, we propose an optimal cropping pattern based on data from the 2020-2021 crop year. The research objectives include maximizing economic returns, minimizing water and fertilizer usage, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis revealed a consistent decline in the volume of surface water throughout the study period, with an average annual reduction of -0.94%. This trend coincides with an escalating demand for water across various sectors, resulting in a growing scarcity index for water resources in the region and a diminishing water balance index. By the end of the assessment, the predicted scarcity index was 0.51, and the water balance index stood at 413 million cubic meters. These indicators suggest that the water resource situation in the basin is likely to worsen, impairing the system's ability to meet increasing national water demands. The evaluation of cropping patterns indicated an 11.5% reduction in the total cultivated area, down to 28167 hectares. Most crops exhibited a decline in cultivation, with beans being deprioritized. However, adjustments in the cultivation strategy resulted in a lower scarcity index compared to baseline conditions. Notably, the implementation of the proposed cultivation scenario achieved a 14% reduction in the average annual scarcity index. Consequently, adopting climate-smart agricultural practices can significantly enhance the sustainable management of water resources in the basin. Changing the cropping pattern is a fundamental solution for improving the water consumption pattern in the agricultural sector. By changing the cropping pattern in areas with lower water potential from crops that require a lot of water during their growth period, such as rice, to crops with higher resistance to water shortages and crops that are more adaptable to climatic and regional conditions, we can take steps towards proper management of water consumption and increasing productivity.