رویکرد ردپای اکولوژیکی با محوریت شاخص‌های اجتماعی و اقتصادی در ایران

Introduction: This study aims to develop a model of regional homogeneity in Iran, focusing on urbanization, employment, foreign direct investment (FDI), inequality, and economic development within an ecological framework. This ecological approach distinguishes the present research from previous studies in this field. The study seeks to address the following key questions: Is there a significant relationship between urbanization, economic development, inequality, employment, and FDI with environmental degradation? Do development and urbanization exert a uniform and equivalent impact on environmental degradation?
 
Materials and Methods: This study aims to examine the impact of factors related to economic development on the environment and how to improve environmetal quality, with a focus on practical application. The primary sources for collecting the necessary data include the World Bank's World Development Indicators, the National Portal of Statistics of Iran, and the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (covering the period of 1979 to 2019) In this research, three regression models were estimated using EViews 10 software, using the quantile regression method, that each of them is introduced below: In the first model, the effect of variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Gini Index (GINI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and employment per capita (Labor) on the ecological footprint is analyzed. In the second model, the focus is on the impact of urbanization and crude oil production alongside GDP on the ecological approach. Finally, the third model examines the relationship between urbanization, GDP, and inequality. Before estimating the models, descriptive statistics and the stationarity of the variables were examined. After resolving the non-stationarity of some variables, the models were estimated.
 
Results and Discussion: Based on the output from EViews software, the inverted U-shaped Kuznets hypothesis holds true for Iran. Results of the First Model: In the first model, the impact of development and employment is significant across all quantiles, with both variables having a destructive effect on the environment. Inequality is only notable in the third and fourth quantiles, indicating a positive effect of this variable on carbon dioxide emissions. An increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) has a negative impact on environmental pollution, and this effect is significant across all quantiles except the first. Results of the Second Model: The effects of development and urbanization are remarkable in all quantiles and show a destructive impact on the environment. Oil production is significant only in the second and third quantiles, with its harmful effect on the environment being confirmed. Results of the Third Model: The third model examines the impact of development and urbanization on inequality. Except for the first quantile, the effects of the variables on inequality are significant across the remaining quantiles. Increased development leads to greater inequality, while increased urbanization has a negative effect on inequality, which reduces it.
 
Conclusion: Given the varying impacts of different variables on ecological footprint and inequality across quantiles, policymaking for sustainable development requires a diversified and region-specific approach. The findings of this study underscore the importance of standardizing industrial production, transitioning from traditional to modern technologies, and developing rural infrastructure as effective strategies to curb excessive urbanization and mitigate environmental pollution. In the energy sector, the necessity of adopting advanced technologies for oil extraction, internalizing environmental costs, and reducing dependency on oil revenues is emphasized. Additionally, attracting foreign investment through proactive political diplomacy is crucial, particularly in efforts to lower CO₂ emissions. Ultimately, priority should be given to advancing technologies for energy production and consumption, eliminating hidden energy subsidies, shifting toward renewable energy sources, and integrating pollution costs into economic decision-making — all of which are essential components for achieving environmental protection and long-term sustainability.