Application of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for the Conservation of Mountain Ungulates, Wild Goat, in the Central Plateau of Iran

Introduction: The Wild Goat (Capra aegagrus), the largest member of the Bovidae family, is the largest Artiodactylaof the central plateau of Iran and one of the symbles of mountainous rocky regions. This species is one of the main prey items for the Asiatic Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus), critically endangered cat species in Iran. Therefore, identifying suitable habitat patches holds significant importance for the conservation of wild goat, initially and subsequently the cheetah in Iran. However, to date, no comprehensive study has been conducted on the distribution of this species. Due to the fragile habitat nature of the central plateau of Iran, droughts, during the last few decades, the central plateau of Iran has been subjected to severe changes due to mining exploration and development activities, as well as the increasing hunting of this species, the range of distribution and Its population density will probably be in the form of spots.

Material and Methods: In this research, considering the necessity of identifying suitable habitats for wild goat, coupled with extremely low density and limited access to updated presence point data, a species distribution modeling package was employed to identify suitable habitats for one of the cheetah's main prey species, the wild goat. For determining wild goat habitat suitability, systematic field surveys using point count methodology with at least two observers were conducted, resulting in 120 direct species observations. Species observation points, along with four categories of variables - climatic, topographic, vegetation cover, and distance to anthropogenic features - were used as inputs for modeling software.

Results and Discussion: One of the advantages of this study was the utilization of nine models within the Biomod2 package for wild goat habitat modeling. Given conservation and management sensitivities, relying on a single model, even with high validity, would be highly risky. The model performance using the ensemble approach was evaluated as very good to excellent. The most influential predictors affecting species distribution were slope, average annual precipitation, village density, and distance to water resources. The probability of species presence and habitat suitability decreased with increasing distance from water resources. Habitat suitability declined with increasing human density and anthropogenic factors such as villages and roads. Wild goats prefer slopes between 20 to 65 percent. Wild goat habitat in Iran's central plateau is severely fragmented and scattered. Despite the importance of mountainous areas in desert landscapes for moderating climatic conditions and their role in increasing species richness, only about 20 percent of these areas fall within the four-category protected areas, while nearly 80 percent lie outside protected areas.

Conclusion: The findings indicate that this species' habitats are severely insular, small, non-continuous, and scattered. A significant portion of Iran's central plateau, which contains the country's largest protected areas, has been traditionally demarcated based on natural features rather than species habitat suitability. Substantial parts of this regions have no suitability for either of these species, yet they are protected. Meanwhile, significant suitable areas lie outside protected areas. If managed through governmental or private, these areas could facilitate habitat connectivity for species while ensuring conservation.