Prediction of Temperature Using SDSM Multiple Linear Models (Case Study: Hoor al-Azim and Miangaran Wetlands)

Document Type : Original Article


1 Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO),Karaj, Iran

2 Department of Geomorphology and Meteorology, Faculty of Geography, Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran



Introduction: One of the consequences of the climate change in Khuzestan Province is the
drying up of a large part of the wetlands of this province, including Miangaran and Hoor al-
Azim, which has caused dust storms in recent years. In this regard, this research aims to predict
climate changes in the area of Miangaran and Hoor al-Azim wetlands by using the SDSM
statistical microscale model based on HadCM3 B2 and A2 climate scenarios. Considering the
specific conditions of the region and the fact that few studies have been done regarding
temperature change in these areas, knowing the state of temperature change can help better
management of resources, especially water resources management.
Material and Methods: These parameters include the average sea level pressure, the
geopotential height of the surface of 850 hectopascals and the average temperature at a height
of two meters. For this purpose, by using the daily data of average temperature, minimum and
maximum temperature in the synoptic stations of Izeh and Bostan as the closest stations to Hoor
al-Azim and Miangaran wetlands in the periods of 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099,
predictions were made and then a comparison was made with the base period (1961-1990). The
selected predictors in climate parameters were chosen using NCEP observational large-scale
parameters and SDSM software. These parameters included average sea level pressure, surface
geopotential height of 850 hectopascals, and average temperature of two meters above the
surface. Also, with scenarios A2 and B2 until the year 2099, the prediction of the return period
of extreme climatic events in the HadCM3 model was done.
Results and Discussion: The results of the simulation of the HadCM3 model along with
observational data from the Izeh station, modeled annual average temperature data was 18.47°C
and for the Bostan station, modeled annual data average temperature was 19.10°C. Both stations
had a higher average temperature in the base period, and the maximum temperature in the
Miangaran wetland was much higher than Hoor al-Azim wetland in the base period. The results
showed that in both stations in scenario A2, the average temperature had significant cycles with
return periods of 1.2 years and the lowest significant cycles for the two stations were in return
periods of 2.3 and 1.3 years, respectively. In scenario B2, the average temperature in two
stations has significant cycles with return periods of 7.5 years and the lowest significant cycle
with a return period of 1.2 years. The results of examining the cycles in the studied areas
indicate that in the A2 scenario, certain climatic conditions in the area have short-term return
periods. One year was obtained in both scenarios, which indicates a wider range of the return
period and a higher probability of extreme temperature events in the B2 scenario. In the
comparison of the two stations, it can be seen that in scenario A2, the average temperature of
the Miangaran wetland is 1.02 °C and the Hoor al-Azim wetland is 1.08 °C.
Conclusion: The results of the data analysis in the future observation and simulation periods
with scenarios B2 and A2 showed an increase in the mean, minimum, and maximum average
temperature in the future simulation periods compared to the base period in Izeh and Bostan
stations. In Bostan station, the average minimum and maximum annual temperature also
increased in the third period compared to the base period. In both scenarios, due to the increase
in temperature, the drying process of both wetlands will continue.


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