Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
2
Department of Agroecology, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University
3
Associate Professor, Department of Ecological Agriculture, Shahid Beheshti University
4
Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Economics, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University
Abstract
Introduction: Climate and ecosystem changes in coordination with other factors have challenged many basic paradigms of natural resource management. Extensive changes have led to environmental transformations requiring managers to evaluate their management and actions. Ecological transformations are a severe type of irreversible change that gradually, and continuously affects community composition and ecosystem functioning. The purpose of this research was to know the correlation between water, energy, and food in Varamin Plain by the method of the mental model and the dynamics of water, energy, and food correlation under political scenarios.
Materials and methods: In this research, by using the mental modeling of the beneficiaries of Varamin Plain and university experts, it was done to know the relationships of the model of water, energy, and food nexus. Then, using the systems dynamics model to determine the cause-and-effect relationships between the variables, the variables were quantified. The data relating to the mental model were collected through dialogue and participation with the farmers and managers of the region using the Mental Modeler software. The data relating to the correlation dynamics model was also collected through organizations, regional stakeholders, and authoritative articles and simulated in Vensim software.
Results and discussion: The results of system dynamics modeling showed that the state of surface water resources, aquifer volume, and water security of the plain during a period of 20 years would be equal to -158 million cubic meters, 2700 million cubic meters, and -162 million cubic meters respectively; which shows the reduction of resources in comparison with the base situation. The application of scenarios for the allocation of the environmental needs of the Bandalikhan wetland showed that the plain would not have the ecological ability to allocate water to the wetland so in the next 20 years, the water security of the plain will reach -180 million cubic meters. Also, applying the scenario of increasing irrigation efficiency without increasing the cultivated area from 58% to 70% was effective in improving the reduction of agricultural water demand and increasing the cultivated area. The increase in the cultivated area up to 41,600 hectares had a positive effect on agricultural water demand, but more than this amount caused the pressure on water resources to increase.
Conclusion: Examining the results and comparing the data showed that during a period of 20 years, the Varamin Plain will have an unfavorable situation regarding water resources and food production. Managing the resources of Varamin Plain requires a change in organizational, agricultural, and development beliefs and values. The development of solar systems in order to meet the energy needs, the establishment of the Varamin sewage treatment plant, and the development of the refinery in the south of Tehran, moving towards sustainable intensification is effective in creating the stability of the resources of the plain in order to properly exploit the resources.
Keywords
)