Assessment of the Relationship Between Environmental Pollution, Economic Growth and Agricultural Production in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture., Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

Introduction: Improving living standards in developing countries and rapid population growth
have significant effects on the economy and environment. Population growth leads to an
increase in demand for agricultural products, which increases environmental pollution, reduces
the productivity of natural resources, and has a negative effect on economic growth. Therefore,
the aim of this research is to investigate the short-term and long-term relationship between
agricultural production, economic growth, and environmental pollution in Iran.
Material and Methods: In this research, time series data for the period of 1991-2020 were
collected from the database of the World Bank and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),
and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models were used. First, the augmented
Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron tests were performed to test the stationarity. Then,
according to the values of Akaike, Schwarz, and Bayesian information criterion, the optimal
number of lags was selected. ARDL bounds test was used to test the presence of the long-run
relationship between the variables, and then short and long-run relationships and error
correction models (ECM) were estimated. Finally, the causality between pairwise variables was
investigated by using the Granger causality test.
Results and Discussion: The results of short-term relationships show that a one percent
increase in economic growth, rural population, gross capital formation, and agricultural
production increases CO2 emissions by 0.307%, decreases by 2.937%, and increases by
0.087%, and 0.065%, respectively. The effect of foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in
the short term was not significant. However, a one percent increase in the lag of foreign direct
investment will increase CO2 emissions by 0.01%. The long-term results show that a one
percent increase in economic growth, rural population, agricultural products, foreign direct
investment, and gross capital formation will increase CO2 emissions by 0.662%, decrease by
3.807%, and increase by 0.141%, by 0.024% and 0.188%, respectively. The results of the
Granger causality test show the bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth,
agricultural production, foreign direct investment, and CO2 emissions, as well as foreign direct
investment and agricultural production. Also, there is causality in only one direction between
gross capital formation and CO2 emissions, agricultural production and economic growth,
foreign direct investment and economic growth, agricultural production and rural population,
rural population and foreign direct investment, and rural population and CO2 emissions. In
addition, there is a long-term positive and significant relationship between CO2 emissions and
economic growth, gross capital formation, agricultural production, and foreign direct
investment. The long-run result demonstrated by the FMOLS and DOLS methods was the same
as the finding of the ARDL approach.
Conclusion: In Iran, enhancing agricultural mechanization, promoting renewable energy,
enforcing environmental regulations, adopting green technologies, investing in R&D, and
attracting foreign investments are crucial to reduce CO2 emissions and pollution. Fossil fueldependent
industries, capital formation, and rural populations also impact environmental
pollution, emphasizing the need for employment opportunities in rural areas to mitigate these
effects.

Keywords

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Environmental Sciences
Volume 22, Issue 2
2024
Pages 245-272

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