The Effect of Climate Change on Production of Agricultural and Other Economic Sectors of Sistan and Baluchestan Province

EXTENDED ABSTRACT
Introduction
Climate change has wide-ranging effects on different economic sectors in different regions. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector is highly affected by climate change due to its strong dependence on climate variables. The aim of this study is to study the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the economy of Sistan and Baluchestan province. For this purpose, the direct effect of climate change on the agricultural sector of the province has been estimated using the ARDL method. Then, using three different scenarios, the indirect effects of climate change on the production of other economic sectors of the province (due to the relationship with the agricultural sector) have been determined based on the input- output model.
Material and Methods:
The present research analyzes the effects of climate change on the economic structure of Sistan and Baluchistan province in two stages. In the first stage, the direct effect of climate change on the agricultural sector of the province has been estimated using the ARDL method. In the second stage, the indirect effects of climate change on the production of other economic sectors have been determined based on the input- output model. The statistics required for this study, including the added value statistics of the agricultural sector of Sistan and Baluchistan province, the capital used in the agricultural sector of the province, and the labor force employed in the agricultural sector were obtained from the statistical yearbooks of the province in the management and planning organization of the province. To collect information about the temperature and precipitation of the province, the statistics of the Meteorological Organization of the whole country were used.
Results and Discussion:
In this study of two models ARDL method and scenario building using data-output model has been used to investigate the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the agricultural sector. Based on ARDL model results, among three variables of labor force, capital inventory and climate change index, coefficient of labor and capital inventory was positive and coefficient of climatic index is negative(-0.33). The reduction of value added in agricultural sector in each of the three scenarios was 98379.85 billion Rials, 111324.6 and 139155.7 billion Rials, respectively. Also, the results of the input-output model, the sectors of the “food and beverage industry”, “textiles, apparel and leather”, and “hotel, dormitory and restaurant”, had the largest decrease in production in result of climate change due to declining agricultural production. The decline in output of the food and beverage industry due to the depreciation of the agricultural sector in each of the three scenarios was 8143.63 billion Rials, 9215.16.16 billion Rials and 1111518.96 billion Rials, respectively.
Conclusion:
The results show that appropriate policies should be adopted to reduce the effects of climate change in the province. Solutions such as changing the cultivation pattern towards crops resistant to high temperature and lack of water, storing floods caused by heavy rains and using them in crop cultivation, using clean energy such as solar energy and wind energy considering the potential of the province, and replacing these energies in production processes and reducing the use of fossil fuels can be effective programs in reducing the inappropriate effects of climate change.