مدلسازی اثرات تغییر کاربری زمین بر خدمات آبی اکوسیستم با استفاده از یک سامانه پشتیبان سیاستگذاری

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشکده محیط زیست و توسعه پایدار

2 گروه برنامه ریزی محیطزیست، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، تهران

3 گروه برنامه ریزی محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، تهران

4 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری

چکیده

سنجش کمیت و پیش بینی اثرات تغییر در خدمات آبی اکوسیستم به واسطه اقدامات انسانی یکی از موضوعات پیچیده در ارزیابی های محیط زیستی است که میتواند از طریق کاربست مدل های دینامیک و فضایی خدمات اکوسیستمی تسهیل گردد. این مقاله چگونگی کاربرد مدل WW PSS را برای محاسبه تعادل و خدمات آبی اکوسیستم در شرایط پایه و سنجش اثرات تغییر در پوشش جنگلی بر کمیت و کیفیت این خدمات در شرایط سناریو، در لندسکیپ جنگلی سرولات و جواهر دشت مورد بررسی قرار می دهد. نتایج حاصل از اجرای مدل نشان داد که سطح تحت پوشش جنگلی متراکم در لندسکیپ مورد مطالعه طی 13 سال اخیر 29% کاهش و پوشش جنگلی نیمه متراکم و ضعیف به ترتیب 14% و 15% افزایش یافته است. سپس اثرات این تغییرات ساختاری بر خدمات  آبی مورد سنجش قرار گرفت که نشان دهنده کاهش توان لندسکیپ مورد مطالعه در ایجاد تعادل آبی به میزان میانگین 5/1 میلیمتر در سال و افزایش رواناب به مقدار 12197528 متر مکعب در سال ناشی از کاهش تبخیر و تعرق به واسطه قطع درختان جنگلی است. در گام نهایی پیامدهای مهم محیط زیستی ناشی از تغییرات در خدمات مذکور، با استفاده از مدل اندازه گیری شد که نتایج  حاکی از افزایش میانگین فرسایش خاک به میزان 57/0 میلیمتر در سال و تشدید پتانسیل توزیع آلاینده های آبی در محدوده مورد بررسی بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling Land Use Change Impacts on Water-Related Ecosystem Services Using a Policy Support System

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ardavan Zarandian 1
  • Ahmad Reza Yavari 2
  • Hamid Reza Jafari 3
  • Hamid Amirnejad 4
1 Research Center of Environment and Sustainable Development, Tehran
2 Department of Environmental Planning, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran
3 Department of Environmental Planning, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran
4 Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari
چکیده [English]

Quantifying and anticipation of the impacts of changes in waterrelated services caused by human activities is a complicated aspect of environmental assessment which can be facilitated by the application of dynamic and spatial models of ecosystem services. This paper aims to examine the application of the WW PSS model in the Sarvelat and Javaherdasht forested landscape in order to calculate the water balance and water- related services of the ecosystem in a baseline condition and, then, to measure the impacts of changes in natural forest cover on the services' quantity and quality based on a scenario developed. The result of running the model indicates that the surfaces covered with dense forest have decreased by 29% in recent 13 years, but the semi-dense and poor forest covers have increased by 14% and 15%, respectively. Then, the impacts of such structural changes on water services were measured and this showed an overall decrease in water balance of 1.5 mm/yr and an increase in runoff of 12,197,528 m3/yr which is caused by a reduction in evapotranspiration due to cutting forest trees. In the final stage, the environmental consequences of changes in ecosystem services were quantified by the model which depicts an increase in soil erosion of 0.57 mm/yr on average and exacerbation of the potential of water contaminate distribution across the study landscape.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Policy Support System
  • Modeling
  • Land use
  • Impacts
  • Water-Related Services

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فصلنامه علوم محیطی
دوره 13، شماره 4
دی 1394
صفحه 97-112

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