کاهش شکاف عرضه و تقاضای محصولات باغی با تأکید بر پایداری منابع آبی کشور

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه بازرگانی داخلی، موسسه مطالعات و پژوهش های بازرگانی، وزارت صنعت، معدن و تجارت، تهران، ایران

2 گروه اقتصاد منابع و محیط زیست، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

 سابقه و هدف:
سیاست ­ها و برنامه­ های تعیین‌شده در رابطه با مدیریت منابع آبی خصوصا در بخش کشاورزی در جهت تأمین اهدافی چون افزایش میزان خودکفایی، کاهش شکاف غذایی، کاهش سطح زیر کشت محصولات آب­بر و حداکثرسازی ارزش اقتصادی آب آبیاری می‌باشند. هدف اصلی این تحقیق نیز در راستای اهداف کلان اقتصادی در بخش کشاورزی، کاهش شکاف امنیت غذایی(در بخش محصولات باغی) با تأکید بر بهینه‌سازی مصرف‌ آب در بخش کشاورزی است.
مواد و روش‌ها:
در راستای تحقق این هدف از حداکثر سازی ارزش اقتصادی آب برای تعیین سطح زیرکشت بهینه محصولات باغی عمده تولیدی در کشور و با رویکرد کاهش شکاف بین عرضه و تقاضای استفاده گردیده است. متدولوژی مورد استفاده در این بررسی مدل برنامه­ ریزی ریاضی خطی می­ باشد. داده‌‌های موردنیاز از طریق پایگاه داده­ای سازمان جهاد کشاورزی و ادارات ذی­ربط در ناحیه ­های مربوطه جمع‌‌آوری شد.
نتایج و بحث:
الگوی کشت پیشنهادی ارزش اقتصادی آب را به میزان 20 درصد افزایش می‌دهد و سطح زیرکشت محصولاتی چون خرما، سیب، مرکبات، انگور و پسته افزایش می‌یابد. تغییر سطح زیر کشت محصولات عمده‌ی باغی در برخی ناحیه‌ها نظیر خراسان، مرکزی، زاگرس مرکزی و خوزستان موجب کاهش سود خالص شده اما در مجموع بازده خالص را به اندازه 19 در صد افزایش داده است و از همه مهمتر مقدار آب صرفه‌جویی‌شده در کل ناحیه‌ها معادل رقم حدود 6869768 هزار مترمکعب است.
نتیجه‌گیری:
توجه به یافته‌های تحقیق بر این مهم تأکید دارد که، توجه به ارزش اقتصادی آب در هر ناحیه بجای استفاده از یک مقدار ثابت کشوری در  ارائه یک الگوی کشت بهینه مؤثر و ضروری است. الگوی کشت پیشنهادی شکاف غذایی و سطح زیر کشت محصولات آب ­بر را کاهش داده و موجب صرفه‌جویی در مصرف آب می­ گردد که این امر ضمن فراهم آوردن زمینه‌ای جهت تخصیص این مقدار آب به کشت محصولات استراتژیک، می‌تواند تاثیر مثبتی بر پایداری منابع آبی در هر ناحیه داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Reducing the supply and demand gap for orchard products emphasizing the sustainability of Iran's water resources

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fahimeh Bahrami 1
  • Momadreza Nazari 2
1 Domestic Commerce Group - Institute for Trade Studies and Research, Ministry of Industry-Mine-Trade. Tehran-Iran
2 Department of Resource and Environmental Economics, Research Institute of Environmental Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran-Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction:
Policies and plans for water resources management, especially in the agricultural sector, are aimed at achieving goals such as increasing the level of self-sufficiency, reducing gaps in food, reducing crop cultivation and maximizing the economic value of irrigation water. The main objective of this research is to reduce macroeconomic objectives in the agricultural sector, reducing the food security gap (in the field of garden products) with an emphasis on optimizing water use in the agricultural sector.
Materials and methods:
In pursuit of this goal, the goal of maximizing the economic value of water has been used to determine the optimal level of cropping of major crops in the country and to reduce the gap between supply and demand. The methodology used in this study is a linear mathematical programming model. Required data were collected through the databases of the Agricultural Jihad Organization and the relevant departments in the relevant areas.
Result and discussion:
The results of the research show that, suggested cropping pattern increases the economic value of water by 20%, and the level of crops such as dates, apples, citrus, grapes and pistachios increases. Changing the cropping area of major crops in some areas, such as Khorasan, Central, Central Zagros and Khuzestan, has reduced net profit, but generally increased net yield by 19 percent, and most importantly, the amount of water saved in the whole area is equivalent to the cultivar About 6869768 thousand cubic meter.
Conclusion:
The results showed that considering the economic value of water in each area, instead of using a steady state value, an effective and effective cropping pattern is necessary. The proposed cropping pattern reduces the nutrient gaps and cropping water levels and saves water consumption, which, while providing a land for allocating this amount of water to the cultivation of strategic products, can have a positive effect on the sustainability of water resources In each area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water economic value
  • Optimum cultivar
  • Orchard production
  • Linear programming
  • Supply and demand gaps

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