پیش بینی زمان تاخیر با استفاده از روابطی بر مبنای رگررسیون فازی

نوع مقاله : Original Articles

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد

2 دانشیار گروه، دانشکده علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران، تهران

3 دانشیار گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد

چکیده

زمان تاخیر حوزه آبخیز یک فاکتور مهم در مدلسازی واکنش حوزه آبخیز است. در این مطالعه مدلسازی زمان تاخیر با استفاده از رگررسیون فازی انجام شده است. برای این منظور، داده های بارش - رواناب حوزه آبخیز خانمیرزا جمع آوری و تحلیل شدند. سپس وقایع (9 واقعه) به دو گروه شامل یک گروه برای ساخت روابطی برمبنای رگرسیون فازی و گروه دیگر برای ارزیابی این روابط تقسیم شدند. نتایج بدست آمده از این تحقیق برمبنای معیارهای آماری خطای نسبی و ریشه میانگین مربع خطا نشان دادند که روابط جدید توسعه یافته برمبنای رگررسیون فازی نسبت به دیگر روابط موجود برای محاسبه زمان تاخیر مناسب تر هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Lag Time Forecasting Using Fuzzy Regression Based Formulae

نویسندگان [English]

  • Moslem Heydari 1
  • Seyed Javad Sadatinejad 2
  • Afshin Honarbakhsh 3
1 PHD. Student of watershed management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Shahrekord
2 Associate Professor, Department of, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran
3 Associate Professor, Department of watershed management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Shahrekord
چکیده [English]

River basin lag time is an important factor in the linear modelling of river basin response. In this study, the modelling of lag time using fuzzy regression is applied. For this purpose, the data for rainfall-runoff events of Khanmirza basin (nine events) were collected and analysed. Following on, events were divided into two groups: one for formulas based on fuzzy regression and another for the validation of these formulas. The results obtained from this study, based on RE and RMSE statistical measures, showed that the efficiency of newly developed formulas based on fuzzy regression methods is higher than for other formulas used for the calculation of time of concentration.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords:Lag time
  • Fuzzy Regression
  • Hydrology

مراجع

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