Simulation of Land Use Change using CA-Markov: A case study of Malekan County

Document Type : علمی - پژوهشی

Authors

1 Department of Environmental Planning, Management and Education, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran

2 Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran

3 University of Tabriz, Tabriz

Abstract

The land surface has experienced significant land use and land cover changes especially with regard to the human built environment. Land use changes is an important component in understanding the interactions between human activities and the environment, so analyzing these changes from the past to the future on the basis of a dynamic approach is necessary. In this research, land use maps for Malekan County in East Azerbaijan (Iran) for the years 1987, 2000 and 2014 were extracted, respectively, using Landsat TM, ETM+ and OLI using RS and GIS techniques. Land use changes detected over the past 27 years were analyzed. The CAMarkov model was used to predict the land use pattern for 2024. Results show that agricultural land and human built areas increased but bare land decreased during the period 1987-2014. The simulated land use map for 2024 indicates an incremental trend in agricultural land (from 24.53% to 25.67%) and also in human built areas (from 2.69% to 3.75%) during 2014-2028. These results can play useful role to improve land use management strategies in the study area.

Keywords

References

  1. Almatar M. Utilizing geographic information systems and remote sensing to investigate urbanization processes: in both the US and KUWAIT. Ph.D.: Geography, University of Florida, United States; 2011. p. 133.
  2. Alnoubani, A. Dynamic of Land use and Land cover change: the case of the Palestinian westbank. Ph.D.: Urban Design and Planning, University of Washington., United States; 2010. p. 156.
  3. Amini V P. Modeling Plausible Impacts of Land Use Changes of the Surrounding Buffer Zone on the Management of the Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. . MSc.: Environmental Planning, manangement and education, University of Tehran, Iran; 2014. p. 149. [In Persian]
  4. Eric k, Judith B B. Land-Use Modelling in Planning Practice. Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York, Inc.; 2011. p. 231.
  5. Estifanos L G. Land use land cover Dynamics in Post-Resettlement Areas using Cellular Automata model: The case of Gubalafto Woreda. MSc.: Remote sensing and GIS, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia; 2010. p. 75.
  6. Foody G M. Status of land cover classification accuracy assessment. Remote Sensing of Environment; 2002;80(1): 185-201.
  7. Imani H J, Kaboli M, Feghhi J, Taherzadeh A, Asadi A. Studying Land Use-Cover Changes during the Last Three Decades in Hamedan Province using Satellite Images. Journal of Natural Environment (Iranian Journal of Natural Resources); 2014; 67(1):1-12. [In Persian]
  8. Jokar A J. Dynamic Land Use/Cover Change Modelling: Geosimulation and Agent-Based Modelling. MSc.: Carteography and Geoinformation, University of Vienna, Austria; 2011. p. 189.
  9. Lambin E F, Turner B L, Geist H J, Agbola S B, Aegelsen A, Bruce J W, Coomes O T, Dirzo R, Fischer G, Folke C,. George PS, Homewood K, Imbernon J, Leemans R, Li X, Moran EF, Mortimore M, Ramakrishnan P S, Richards J F, Skanes H, Steffen W, Stone G D, Svedin U, Veldkamp T A, Vogel C, Xu J. The causes of land use and land cover change: moving beyond the myths. Global Environmental Change; 2001;22: 122-129.
  10. Mazaheri M R, Esfandiari M, Masih Abadi M H, Kamali M. Detecting temporal land use changes using remote sensing and GIS techniqes (Case study: Jiroft, Kerman Province). Journal of Applied RS and GIS Techniques in Natural Resource Science; 2013; 4(2):25-39. [In Persian]
  11. Mosayebi M, Maleki M. Change detection in land use using remote sensing data and GIS (Case study: Ardabil County). Journal of Applied RS and GIS Techniques in Natural Resource Science; 2014; 5(1):81-93. [In Persian]
  12. Muller M R, Middleton J. A Markov model of land-use change dynamics in the Niagara region, Ontario, Canada, Landscape Ecology; 1994;9:151-157.
  13. Najat Q O, Mohd S S A, Wan M, Narimah S. Modelling Land-use and Land cover Changes Using Markov-CA, and Multiple Decision Making in Kirkuk City. International Journal of Scientific Research in Environmental Sciences; 2014; 2(1): 29-42.
  14. Narimah S, Rosmiyati H, Yasin A E E. Modelling Land Use Changes at the Peri-Urban Areas Using Geographic Information Systems and Cellular Automata Model. Journal of Sustainable Development; 2011; 4(6): 72-84.
  15. Nejadi A. Developing a Decision Support System to manage the protected areas based on land use change modeling Case study: Lisar protected area. Ph.D.: Environmental Planning, University of Tehran, Iran; 2012. p. 133. [In Persian]
  16. Paidamwoyo M. Land use/cover change modelling and land degradation assessment in the KEISKAMMA catchment using Remot sensing and GIS. Ph.D.: Faculty of Science, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, South Africa; 2011. p. 200.
  17. Skole D, Tucker C.Tropical deforestation and habitat fragmentation in the Amazon: satellite data from 1978 and 1988. Science; 1993; 260:1905-1910.
  18. Statistical Center of Iran, Statistical Yearbooc, http://www.amar.org.ir, (assessed: January 10, 2015)
  19. Sun Y. Simulating Future Land Use Change in the East Fork Little Miami River (EFLMR) Watershed in Ohio. MSc.: Geography, University of Cincinnati, United States; 2008. p. 91.
  20. Taheri M, Gholamalifard M, Bakhtiari R A, Rahimoghli S. Land Cover Changes Modeling of Tabriz Township Using Artificial Neural Network and Markov Chain. Physical Geography Research Quarterly; 2014; 45(4):97-121. [In Persian]
  21. Vafayi S. Monitoring and predicting land use changes using remote sensing and GIS (Marivan region). MSc.: Forestry, University of Tehran, Iran; 2012. p. 111. [In Persian]
  22. Verburg P H, Schot P, Dijst M, Veldkamp A. Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities. GeoJournal; 2004; 61(4): 309-324.
  23. Viera A J, Garrett J M. Understanding interobserver agreement: the kappa statistic, Family Medicine ; 2005; 37(5): 360-363.
  24. Vliet J V, White R, Dragicevic S. Modeling urban growth using a variable grid cellular automaton. Computers. Environment and Urban Systems; 2009; 33(1): 35-43.
  25. Wijanarto A B. Application of Markov change detection technique for detecting landsat ETM derived land cover change over Banten Bay. Journal of Ilmiah Geomatica; 2006; 12(1): 11-21
Environmental Sciences
Volume 13, Issue 3
October 2015
Pages 133-142

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics