نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران
2 گروه مهندسی محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران
3 گروه مهندسی صنایع چوب و مبلمان، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران
4 گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرمآباد، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction: Climate change is one of the most significant environmental challenges of the current century, with wide-ranging impacts on natural resources, particularly water and soil, leading to shifts in their temporal and spatial patterns. A key consequence of this phenomenon is the alteration of the distribution of plant species and rangeland ecosystems, which threatens the persistence of native species. Acanthophyllum crassifolium Boiss, a native species of Iran, grows in arid and semi-arid regions and plays a significant role in soil stabilization and vegetation cover in mountainous areas. This study aims to identify current and future climatic habitats suitable for this species in Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari Province, to support conservation planning.
Material and methods: We used presence data for A. crassifolium from 34 sites, along with 500 absence points. For bioclimatic variables, 19 variables were extracted for three time periods (present, 2050, and 2080) from the CHELSA database using two general circulation models (GFDL-ESM4 and MRI-ESM2-0) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) with high spatial resolution. Topographic variables (elevation, slope, and aspect) were also used. Pearson correlation test was employed to remove highly collinear variables, resulting in seven predictors (5 bioclimatic and 2 topographic) being entered into the model as predictive factors along with nine algorithms The algorithms were ensemble-merged to improve predictive accuracy. Finally, we integrated a Human Pressure index with the suitability maps (high and good suitability for A. crassifolium) to obtain the final potential distribution under current and future conditions.
Results and discussion: The evaluation indices showed excellent erformance of the ensemble model in predicting the distribution of A. crassifolium. Spatial analysis of the habitats of this species revealed that most of the highly and moderately suitable habitats for the species are located in the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern parts of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province. The three environmental variables contributing most to the species distribution were: mean monthly precipitation amount of the coldest quarter, temperature seasonality, and mean monthly precipitation amount of the wettest quarter. Under two GCMs (GFDL-ESM4 and MRI-ESM2-0) and three SSP scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP3-7-0, SSP5-8-5), the spatial extent of suitable habitats is projected to decline substantially, by approximately 63–99% across the study area. This decline reflects the significant impact of climate change on the natural habitats of this species. Newly suitable areas are projected to emerge, comprising about 16–105% of the province. The net change in habitat extent relative to the current baseline is estimated to range from 15% to −68%. Furthermore, most areas predicted to be suitable under future climate scenarios are currently under relatively low human pressure and other socio-economic stresses.
Conclusion: The distribution pattern of human Pressure and species distribution models in relation to A. crassifolium indicates a warning signal for the conservation and restoration of this valuable species. The habitats of this species should be recognized as conservation priorities and must be explicitly addressed in management planning and conservation strategies to reduce the negative impacts of human pressures and to create favorable conditions for the survival of this valuable species.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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