بررسی عامل های موثر بر آلودگی هوا: شواهد تجربی از بزرگترین تولید‌کنندگان‌ کربن‌ دی‌اکسید

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مدیریت کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: طی دهه های اخیر رشد اقتصادی جهان و روند صنعتی شدن موجب افزایش مصرف انرژی شده است. بخش زیادی از
افزایش تقاضای انرژی از منابع فسیلی تأمین می شود و مصرف آنها انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای و آلوده شدن هوا را به همراه دارد. بعد از انقلاب صنعتی فعالیت های ا نسان و آلودگی های ناشی از این فعالیت ها، مقدار گازهای گلخانه ای را به طور غیرطبیعی افزایش داده و محیط-زیست کشورها را با آسیب جدی مواجه کرده است. در این راستا، هدف پژوهش، حاضر شناخت و بررسی عامل های مؤثر بر میزان انتشار گاز کربن دی اکسید به عنوان سنجه ای برای کیفیت محیط زیست و آلودگی هوا است .
مواد و رو ش ها: در مطالعه حاضر ابتدا با استفاده از آزمون های ایم، پسران و شین و لوین، لین و چو مانایی متغیرها و سپس با کمک
آزمون های پدرونی و کائو وجود هم انباشتگی بین متغیرهای مدل مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در نهایت با استفاده از تحلیل هم انباشتگی پانلی و برآوردگرهای حداقل مربعات معمولی کاملا اصلاح شد ه و حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا رابطه بلندمدت بین انتشار کربن دی اکسید با متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی، درصد استفاده از انرژی تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر، آزادسازی تجاری، درصد شهرنشینی و توسعه مالی برای یازده کشور عمده انتشار دهنده 2CO طی دوره زمانی 2000 تا 2015 بررسی شد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل و برآورد مدل از بسته نرم افزاری Eviews10 استفاده شده است .
نتایج و بحث: با توجه به این که متغیرهای الگو بنابر آزمون های ریشه واحد ایم، پسران و شین و لوین، لین و چو جواب یکسانی در مورد
مانایی متغیرها در سطح گزارش ندادند، برای پرهیز از وجود رگرسیون کاذب در تخمین ها، هم انباشتگی بین متغیر وابسته و متغیرهای
مستقل مورد بررسی قرار گرفت . نتایج آزمون های هم انباشتگی کائو و پدرونی گویای وجود رابطه بلندمدت بین متغیرهای مستقل و متغیر وابسته مدل بود. همچنین آزمون های چاو و هاسمن نشان دادند که مدل حاضر، مدل پانل با اثرات تصادفی می باشد. در مرحله آخر برآورد مدل با استفاده از برآوردگرهای حداقل مربعات معمولی به طورکامل اصلاح شده و حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا معنی داری تمام متغیرهای مورد بررسی بر میزان انتشار کربن دی اکسید ثابت شد. بر این اساس متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی، درصد استفاده از انرژی تجدیدناپذیر تأثیر مثبت و همچنین متغیرهای آزادسازی تجاری، توسعه مالی، درصد شهرنشینی و درصد استفاده از منابع انرژی تجد یدپذیر تأثیر منفی بر میزان انتشار 2CO در کشورهای چین، ایالات متحده آمریکا، هند، روسیه، ژاپن، آلمان، ایران، عربستان سعودی، کره جنوبی، کانادا و برزیل دارند . همچنین بررسی کشش متغیر وابسته نسبت به متغیرهای مستقل در هر دو مدل حداقل مربعات معمولی به طور کامل اصلاح شده و حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا نشان داد که متغیر سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی بیشترین تأثیر را در افزایش انتشار کربن دی اکسید و متغیر شهرنشینی بیشترین اثر کاهشی را بر میزان انتشار این گاز گلخانه ای دارند.
نتیجه گیری: با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده از تحقیق حاضر و بررسی رابطه متغیر وابسته با متغیرهای مستقل مدل ، عامل هایی مانند وضع قوانین سخت گیرانه مانند مالیات بر کربن، به کارگیری تکنولوژی نوین، تسهیل قوانین مربوط به اعمال تعرفه و گمرک کالا و خدمات، حرکت به سوی اقتصاد با ز و همچنین استفاده از ا نرژی های پاک از قبیل انرژی بیوگاز، انرژی خورشیدی و انرژی باد در کاهش انتشار 2CO بسیار مؤثر می باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Determinants of air pollution: empirical evidence from the largest CO2 emitters

نویسندگان [English]

  • elnaz asadi
  • abolfazl deylami
  • ali keramatzadeh
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: In recent decades, global economic growth and industrialization have increased the demand for the consumption of energy . The increasing energy demand is met by burning fossil fuels, which emit air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. After the industrial revolution, energy generation abnormally increased the amount of greenhouse gases emission, critically damaging the environment. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) as an indicator of environmental quality and air pollution.
Material and methods: This study has proposed a long-run relationship between CO2, economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, financial development, and urbanization for a global panel of 11 countries spanning the period 2000–2015 using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS). In the first step, the LLC and IPS unit root tests were performed to examine the non-stationarity properties of the dataset. Then, Pedroni and Kao co-integration tests were applied to identify if there is a correlation between variables in the long term. In addition, the F (Chow) test was used to detect the best model. The software package used for estimation and analysis of the models was Eviews 10.
Results and discussion: This paper first performed a panel unit root test proposed by Levin, Lin, and, Chu (LLC) and Im, Pesaran and, Shin (IPS) to examine the null hypothesis that all the series have a unit root. The results of IPS test indicated that the null hypothesis was rejected only for urbanization, implying that this variable was stationary. However, all tests confirmed that variables were stationary after the first-difference. It is hereby informed that variables were first-difference stationary. Our results suggest that there is a need to examine co-integration among variables. In addition, we conduct Pedroni and Kao co-integration tests, the results of which rejected the null hypothesis of no co-integration. The results of the F-test indicated that the panel model was the right choice. To help us choose between the fixed effects or random effects estimators, we conduct the Hausman test, where the null hypothesis was that the preferred model has random effects. Our results from the Hausman test did not reject the null hypothesis, suggesting that the random effects estimator was more appropriate for our data than the fixed effects estimator. The results from the FMOLS and DOLS estimations indicated that energy consumption from renewable sources, trade openness, financial development, and urbanization had a negative impact on CO2 emissions, while the energy consumption from non-renewable sources had a positive impact.
Conclusion: The results of the research imply that policymakers should focus more on public awareness of renewable energy, mainly in solar and wind power to alleviate environmental pressure and CO2 emission. The findings also suggest that the governments should set a price per ton on carbon i.e. a carbon tax. Furthermore, developed countries should transfer sophisticated technology to emerging and undeveloped countries to generate electricity and avoid unsafe climate change .

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Air pollution
  • Greenhouse gases
  • CO2 emission
  • FMOLS
  • DOLS

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فصلنامه علوم محیطی
دوره 19، شماره 4
دی 1400
صفحه 205-224

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