بررسی رابطه بین آلودگی محیط زیست، رشد اقتصادی و تولیدات کشاورزی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: بهبود استانداردهای زندگی در کشورهای در حال توسعه باعث رشد جمعیت و تأثیرات قابل توجهی
بر اقتصاد و محیط زیست شده است. افزایش تولیدات کشاورزی به دنبال تقاضای رو به رشد جمعیت، باعث افزایش
آلودگی محیط زیست می شود که این موضوع می تواند باعث کاهش بهره وری منابع طبیعی، افزایش هزینه های بهداشتی
- درمانی و کاهش کیفیت زندگی افراد شود و بطور کلی تأثیر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی داشته باشد. بنابراین، لزوم توجه
به ارتباط بین آلودگی محیط زیست، تولیدات کشاورزی و رشد اقتصادی بیش از پیش احساس می شود. هدف این
پژوهش درک رابطه کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت بین تولیدات کشاورزی، رشد اقتصادی و آلودگی محیط زیست در ایران است .
مواد و روش ها: در این پژوهش از داده های سری زمانی دوره 2020-1991 گردآوری شده از پایگاه داده بانک جهانی
و سازمان خواربار و کشاورزی ملل متحد و روش خود توضیح با وقفه های گسترده (ARDL) استفاده شده است. در
مرحله اول مانایی متغیرها با کمک آزمون های دیکی فولر تعمیم یافته و فیلیپس پرون مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. سپس
با توجه به مقادیر آماره های آکائیک، شوارتز و بیزین تعداد وقفه بهینه انتخاب شد. در ادامه از آزمون کرانه های
برای بررسی وجود هم انباشتگی بلندمدت بین متغیرها استفاده و پس از آن روابط کوتاه مدت، بلندمدت و مدل تصحیح
خطا برآورد شدند. در نهایت نیز با استفاده از آزمون علیت گرنجری رابطه علی زوجی بین متغیرها بررسی شد.
نتایج و بحث: بعد از اثبات وجود هم انباشتگی بین متغیرهای مورد بررسی، نتایج روابط کوتاه مدت نشان می دهد که
افزایش یک درصدی در رشد اقتصادی، جمعیت روستایی، تشکیل سرمایه ناخالص و تولیدات کشاورزی به ترتیب انتشار CO2 را
307/ درصد افزایش، 2/937 درصد کاهش، 087/ درصد و 065/ درصد افزایش می ­دهد. در این مطالعه اثر سرمایه­ گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر انتشار CO2 در کوتاه‌مدت معنی‌دار نشد. اما یک درصد افزایش وقفه آن باعث افزایش 010/ درصدی انتشار دی ­اکسید­کربن خواهد شد. این در حالیست که نتایج تخمین بلندمدت ثابت می ­کند افزایش یک درصدی رشد اقتصادی، جمعیت روستایی، تولید محصولات کشاورزی، سرمایه ­گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تشکیل سرمایه ناخالص سطح انتشار CO2 را به ترتیب 662/0 درصد افزایش، 807/3 درصد کاهش، 141/0 درصد، 024/0 درصد و 188/0 درصد افزایش می­ دهد. نتایج آزمون علیت گرنجری نشان دهنده، رابطه علیت دوطرفه بین رشد اقتصادی، تولیدات کشاورزی، سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی با انتشار CO2 و همچنین بین سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تولیدات کشاورزی است. همچنین رابطه علیت یک طرفه بین تشکیل سرمایه ناخالص و انتشار CO2، تولیدات کشاورزی و رشد اقتصادی، سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و رشد اقتصادی، تولیدات کشاورزی و جمعیت روستایی، جمعیت روستایی و سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، جمعیت روستایی و انتشار CO2 وجود دارد. علاوه بر این، بین انتشار CO2 با رشد اقتصادی، تشکیل سرمایه ناخالص، تولیدات کشاورزی و سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی ارتباط طولانی مدت مثبت و معناداری وجود دارد. روابط بلندمدت این بررسی، در روش های FMOLS و DOLS نیز اثبات شد که سازگاری و استحکام یافته های رهیافت ARDL را نشان می دهد.
 نتیجه گیری: در ایران، تقویت مکانیزاسیون کشاورزی، ترویج انرژی های تجدیدپذیر، اجرای مقررات محیط زیستی، اتخاذ فناوری های سبز، سرمایه گذاری در تحقیق و توسعه و جذب سرمایه گذاری های خارجی برای کاهش انتشار CO2 و آلودگی بسیار مهم است. صنایع وابسته به سوخت فسیلی، تشکیل سرمایه و جمعیت روستایی نیز بر آلودگی محیط زیست تأثیر می گذارند و بر نیاز به فرصت های شغلی در مناطق روستایی برای کاهش این اثرات تأکید می کنند .

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of the Relationship Between Environmental Pollution, Economic Growth and Agricultural Production in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolfazl Deylami
  • Elnaz Nejatiyanpour
  • Mahmoud Sabouhi Sabouni
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture., Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Improving living standards in developing countries and rapid population growth
have significant effects on the economy and environment. Population growth leads to an
increase in demand for agricultural products, which increases environmental pollution, reduces
the productivity of natural resources, and has a negative effect on economic growth. Therefore,
the aim of this research is to investigate the short-term and long-term relationship between
agricultural production, economic growth, and environmental pollution in Iran.
Material and Methods: In this research, time series data for the period of 1991-2020 were
collected from the database of the World Bank and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),
and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models were used. First, the augmented
Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron tests were performed to test the stationarity. Then,
according to the values of Akaike, Schwarz, and Bayesian information criterion, the optimal
number of lags was selected. ARDL bounds test was used to test the presence of the long-run
relationship between the variables, and then short and long-run relationships and error
correction models (ECM) were estimated. Finally, the causality between pairwise variables was
investigated by using the Granger causality test.
Results and Discussion: The results of short-term relationships show that a one percent
increase in economic growth, rural population, gross capital formation, and agricultural
production increases CO2 emissions by 0.307%, decreases by 2.937%, and increases by
0.087%, and 0.065%, respectively. The effect of foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in
the short term was not significant. However, a one percent increase in the lag of foreign direct
investment will increase CO2 emissions by 0.01%. The long-term results show that a one
percent increase in economic growth, rural population, agricultural products, foreign direct
investment, and gross capital formation will increase CO2 emissions by 0.662%, decrease by
3.807%, and increase by 0.141%, by 0.024% and 0.188%, respectively. The results of the
Granger causality test show the bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth,
agricultural production, foreign direct investment, and CO2 emissions, as well as foreign direct
investment and agricultural production. Also, there is causality in only one direction between
gross capital formation and CO2 emissions, agricultural production and economic growth,
foreign direct investment and economic growth, agricultural production and rural population,
rural population and foreign direct investment, and rural population and CO2 emissions. In
addition, there is a long-term positive and significant relationship between CO2 emissions and
economic growth, gross capital formation, agricultural production, and foreign direct
investment. The long-run result demonstrated by the FMOLS and DOLS methods was the same
as the finding of the ARDL approach.
Conclusion: In Iran, enhancing agricultural mechanization, promoting renewable energy,
enforcing environmental regulations, adopting green technologies, investing in R&D, and
attracting foreign investments are crucial to reduce CO2 emissions and pollution. Fossil fueldependent
industries, capital formation, and rural populations also impact environmental
pollution, emphasizing the need for employment opportunities in rural areas to mitigate these
effects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • CO2 emission
  • Agricultural products
  • GDP
  • ARDL
  • Granger causality

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فصلنامه علوم محیطی
دوره 22، شماره 2
1403
صفحه 245-272

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