شناسایی الگوهای جوی مولد سیلاب و شبیه‌سازی تبدیل بارش به رواناب در محدوده مطالعاتی شیراز

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه برنامه ریزی محیط زیست، پردیس کیش، دانشگاه تهران، کیش، ایران

2 گروه برنامه‌ریزی، مدیریت و آموزش محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: سیلاب ناشی از افزایش ناگهانی ارتفاع آب رودخانه به­ دلیل وقوع بارندگی شدید است. آب اضافه از دبی پایه و بستر رودخانه خارج شده و وارد محیط مجاور می­ شود که باعث می­ شود خسارت­ های هنگفتی به اکوسیستم ­ها و زیرساخت­ های منطقه در دشت­ های سیلابی  وارد شود. به­ منظور تدوین برنامه ­ی راهبردی در مسیر مدیریت بحران، شناخت سازوکار و تکوین پدیده ­ی سیلاب و میزان رواناب ایجادشده ناشی از آن در اولویت قرار دارد. طی سال­ های اخیر، سیلاب­ های فراوانی در حوضه آبریز رودخانه خشک شیراز اتفاق افتاده است. مهیب ­ترین سیلاب منطقه در روزهای 5 و 6 فروردین­ ماه 1398 در حوضه رخ داد و خسارت­ های اقتصادی- اجتماعی و جانی شدیدی بر منطقه و مردم شهر وارد ساخت. با شناخت سازوکارها و تکوین الگوهای اتمسفری مولد سیلاب، می­ توان اولین گام را در مهار سیلاب برداشت و همچنین با پیش ­بینی میزان رواناب تولید شده، نحوه­ ی مقابله با آن را تشخیص داد. به­ همین دلیل پژوهش حاضر در راستای مدیریت محیط ­زیستی حوضه ­ی آبخیز رودخانه خشک شیراز، سعی در رهیافت مدیریت سیلاب بر مبنای شناخت الگوهای مولد سیلاب و شبیه ­سازی میزان رواناب تولید شده را دارد.
مواد و روش­ ها: به­ منظور بررسی ویژگی ­های بارش در محدوده ­ی مطالعاتی رودخانه خشک شیراز، میزان بارش روزانه از 12 ایستگاه باران­ سنجی در محدوده طی بازه ­ی زمانی 2001 تا 2019 به ­دست آمد. سپس بارش ­ها در مقیاس سالانه و ماهانه مرتب­ شد و در محیط پردازشی ArcGIS، پهنه ­بندی بارش با الگوریتم کریجینگ انجام شد. همچنین بارش­ های بیش از 40 میلی­ متر از 12 ایستگاه باران­ سنجی استخراج گردید و به ­عنوان روزهای سیلابی درنظر گرفته شد. برای هر ایستگاه باران­ سنجی، تعداد روزهای سیلابی تعیین شده و در محیط ArcGIS، پهنه ­بندی روزهای سیلابی با الگوریتم کریجینگ انجام شد.  سپس، سه وقوع سیلاب در روزهای 16 فوریه 2017، 26 مارس 2019 و 23 ژانویه 2020 که در هر سه روز، میانگین بارش در محدوده­ ی مطالعاتی شیراز، 100 میلی­ متر بود، انتخاب شده و با رویکرد سینوپتیکی، اندرکنش ­های جوی و الگوهای مولد سیلاب شناسایی گردید. سپس با استفاده از مدل هیدرولوژیکی HEC-HMS میزان تبدیل بارش به رواناب در هر یک از زیرحوضه­ های موجود در محدوده مطالعاتی شیراز شبیه ­سازی شد.
نتایج و بحث: نتایج نشان داد که بیشینه­ ی بارش در فوریه و  کمینه ی آن در جولای رخ می ­دهد. بیشینه ­ی بارش سالانه در مناطق کوهستانی قلات و گلستان با 627 میلی­ متر و کمینه ­ی آن در مهارلو به میزان 245 میلی­متر است. نتایج سینوپتیکی نشان داد که استقرار ناوه­ ی کم ­ارتفاع و سردچال جوی تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال در شرق مدیترانه به همراه استقرار سیستم کم ­فشار دینامیکی ایران موجب ناپایداری هوای سطحی در استان فارس شده و با تزریق رطوبت از خلیج­ فارس به توده­ ی هوا، موجب وقوع  بارش های سیلابی در شیراز شده است. نتایج مدل­ سازی بارش- رواناب نشان داد که بیشترین میزان رواناب در زیرحوضه ­های صدرا و قلات به­ ترتیب 5773 و 5076 هزارمترمکعب بود و بیشینه­ ی دبی پیک نیز در صدرا و قلات به­ ترتیب 666 و 389 مترمکعب در ثانیه بود که طی ساعت 17:00 اتفاق افتاد. بیشترین حجم نفوذ بارش در قلات و چنار راهدار به ­ترتیب 5423 و 2546 هزارمترمکعب بود و کمترین میزان نفوذ در دروازه قران با 247 هزارمترمکعب بود که دلیل اصلی آن تراکم بالای کاربری مسکونی- تجاری در این زیرحوضه است.
نتیجه ­گیری: پیشنهاد می­ گردد که به­ منظور مدیریت بحران سیلاب در شیراز، مدیریت رواناب ­های تولیدشده در زیرحوضه ­های شمالی همچون قلات، گلستان و صدرا و استفاده از الگوهای مناسب مدیریت رواناب مانند زیرساخت­ های سبز و آبی می­ تواند در مهار سیلاب کارساز باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identification of flood atmospheric patterns and simulation of rainfall to runoff conversion in Shiraz Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Jorkesh 1
  • Mohammad Javad Amiri 2
  • Ahmad Nohegar 2
1 Department of Environmental planning, Kish Campus, University of Tehran, Kish, Iran
2 Department of planning, Management and Environmental Education, Faculty of Environment, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Flood is caused by a sudden increase in the water level of a river due to heavy rainfall, in which excess water flows out of the basin and the riverbed and enters adjacent areas, causing extensive damage to the region's ecosystems and infrastructure. In order to determine and implement a strategic plan in the direction of crisis management, understanding the mechanism and development of the flood phenomenon and the amount of subsequent runoff is a priority. In recent years, flood events have occurred in the catchment area of ​​the dry river of Shiraz; The most terrible flood event occurred on the 25th and 26th of March 2019 in the basin and caused severe economic, social and human damage to the people of the city. By recognizing the mechanisms and developing atmospheric patterns of flood generation, the first step can be taken in flood control; Also, by predicting the amount of runoff produced, how to deal with it can be identified. For this reason, in order to manage the environment of the dry river basin of Shiraz, the present study tries to approach flood management based on recognizing flood generating patterns and simulating the amount of runoff produced.
Material and Methods: In order to study rainfall in the dry river of Shiraz, the daily rainfall was obtained from 12 rain gauge stations in the area in the period 2001 to 2019. The rainfalls were then sorted on an annual and monthly scale, and the rainfall was zoned using the Kriging algorithm in ArcGIS. Also, rainfalls of more than 40 mm were extracted from 12 rain gauge stations and were considered as flood events. For each rainfall station, the number of flood events was determined and flood events were zoned by the kriging algorithm in ArcGIS. Next, three events of flood on 16 February 2017, 26 March 2019 and 23 January 2020, when the average rainfall in the Shiraz watershed was 100 mm every three days, were selected and interacted with a synoptic approach. Atmospheric conditions and flood patterns were identified. Next, using the HEC-HMS hydrological model, the amount of rainfall to runoff conversion in each of the sub-basins in the Shiraz watershed was simulated.
Results and Discussion: The results showed that the maximum precipitation occurs in February and the minimum in July. The maximum annual rainfall is 627 mm in the mountainous areas of Qalat and Golestan and the minimum is 245 mm in Maharloo Lake. Synoptic results showed that the low altitude and cold-water trough at the level of 500 hPa in the eastern Mediterranean along with the dynamic low-pressure system in Iran caused surface air instability in Fars Province and by injecting moisture from the Persian Gulf to the massif. The weather has caused floods in Shiraz. The results of rainfall-runoff modeling showed that the highest runoff in Sadra and Qalat sub-basins were 5773 and 5076 thousand m3, respectively, and the maximum peak discharge in Sadra and Qalat was 666 and 389 m3/sec, respectively. It happened at 17:00. The highest volume of rainfall penetration in Qalat and Chenar Rahdar was 5423 and 2546 thousand m3, respectively, and the lowest level of penetration in the Quran Gate was 247 thousand m3, the main reason being the high density of residential-commercial use in this sub-basin.
Conclusion: Therefore, it is suggested that in order to manage the flood crisis in Shiraz, controlling runoff produced in northern sub-basins such as Qalat, Golestan and Sadra and increasing the level of permeability can be effective in controlling floods.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cut of low
  • flood
  • HEC-HMS
  • runoff
  • Shiraz

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فصلنامه علوم محیطی
دوره 21، شماره 4
1402
صفحه 1-22

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